Fig 1 Incremental cost of screening against effectiveness of screening (gain in QALYs) in the 5000 runs of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, under the assumption that screening advances diagnosis by five years during screening and results in a reduction of 10% in incidence when screening stops. Red point=base case scenario for all the input parameters. Points to the right of the dashed line=models with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio better than £20 000 per QALY