Table 2.
Distribution of incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for 5000 model runs under six scenarios of the effect of screening on breast cancer incidence
| Advance in cancer diagnosis with breast screening (no of years) | Reduction in cancer incidence after breast screening stops (%) | Distribution (%) of model runs by ICER threshold | ICER base case scenario (cost (£) per QALY) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <£20 000 per QALY | £20 000-29 999 per QALY | ≥£30 000 per QALY† | |||
| 7 | 10 | 37 | 15 | 48 | 27 650 |
| 7 | 20 | 39 | 16 | 45 | 25 020 |
| 5* | 10* | 45 | 16 | 39 | 20 800 |
| 5 | 20 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 19 210 |
| 3 | 10 | 56 | 16 | 28 | 16 700 |
| 3 | 20 | 59 | 15 | 26 | 15 590 |
*Base case scenario.
†Includes model runs where screening was associated with a reduction in QALYs.