Table 2.
Parameters for the economic disease model. Where: H-S are healthy pigs with normal growth; PMWS-D are PMWS pigs that die due to the disease; PMWS-R are PMWS pigs that recover from the disease; Sub-D are PCV2 infected pigs with slow growth, no clear PMWS clinical sign and that die; and Sub-S are PCV2 infected pigs with slow growth, no clear PMWS clinical sign and that survive.
Parameters | Symbol | Value | Stochastic |
Reference | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Distribution | Range | ||||
Post-weaning mortality | |||||
Overall post-weaning mortality | XT | 1.29*exp(0.313*PMWS severity) | Normal | 0.27–0.36 | Fitted through non-linear regression of CS-2008 data (reg coef. p < 0.01, R2 = 0.88). The 95% confidence interval of the regression coefficient was used to define the stochastic range. |
Post-weaning mortality non-PCV2 related (%) | X2+3 | 3.08 | – | – | Post-weaning mortality at severity of 2.79 (see assumption 7 in Table 3) |
Post-weaning mortality attributable to PMWS pigs | X5 | ψ*FR | – | – | [Rule: Cannot be higher than the proportion of PCV2 infected pigs] |
PMWS fatality rate (FR) | FR | 1.0136*exp(−0.0382*ψ) | – | – | Fitted through non-linear regression of FO-2011 data (reg coef. p = 0.17, R2 = 0.82) |
Post-weaning mortality attributable to PCV2 subclinical pigs | X4 | XT − X2+3 − X5 | – | – | [Rule: X4 cannot be less than zero] |
PMWS morbidities and PCV2 prevalence | – | – | |||
Proportion of PCV2 infected pigs | π | 0.0982*exp(0.2244*PMWS severity) | Normal | 0.18–0.27 | Fitted through non-linear regression of CS-2008 data (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.87). The 95% confidence interval of the regression coefficient was used to define the stochastic range. |
Percentage of PMWS pigs | ψ | 0.1127*exp(2.8802*MF1) | Normal | 2.61–0.15 | Fitted through non-linear regression of CS-2008 data (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.82)). The 95% confidence interval of the regression coefficient was used to define the stochastic range. |
Morbidity factor 1 | MF1 | See Eq. (1) | – | – | |
Proportion of PCV2 infected pigs that develop subclinical signs | Ω | 0.73 | Normal | 0.27–0.48 | Estimated from data of L-2001 (see assumption 3 in Table 3). The 95% confidence interval was used to define the stochastic range. |
Growth rate parameters | |||||
Average weight at slaughter of a H-S pig (kg) | Wt1 | 102.6 | – | – | T1*ADGH-S + Wt0 |
Average weight at weaning of a H-S pig (kg) | Wt0 | 8.1 | – | – | Bench10 |
Average daily weight gain of a H-S pig (kg/day) | ADGH-S | 0.675 | – | – | Bench10 |
Percentage reduction in ADG of a Sub-S pig | ζSub | 16 | Normal | 3–29 | Estimated from data of L-2001 study. The 95% confidence interval was used to define the stochastic range. |
Average daily weight gain of a Sub-S pig (kg/day) | ADGSub | 0.567 | – | – | ADGH-S*(1 − ζSub) |
Percentage reduction in ADG of a PMWS-R pig | ζPMWS | 26 | Normal | 16–36 | Estimated from data of L-2001 study. The 95% confidence interval was used to define the stochastic range. |
Average daily weight gain of a PMWS-R pig (kg/day) | ADGPMWS | 0.500 | – | – | ADGH-S*(1 − ζPMWS) |
Average weight at death of a PMWS-D pig (kg) | WPMWSD | 30.37 | – | – | Wt0 + TPMWSD*ADGPMWS |
Average weight at death of a Sub-D pig (kg) | WSubD | 42.12 | – | – | Wt0 + TSubD*ADGSub |
Time parameters | |||||
Average days in feed of a H-S pig (days) | T1 | 140 | – | – | Bench10 |
Average days in feed of a Sub-S pig (days) | T2 | 166.67 | – | – | (Wt1 − Wt0)/ADGSub [161 days in the model as explained in assumption 8, Table 3) |
Average days in feed of a PMWS-D pig (days) | TPMWSD | 56 | Beta pert | 42–70 | See assumption 6, Table 3 |
Average days in feed of a Sub-D pig (days) | TSubD | 56 | Uniform | 50–80 | See assumption 6, Table 3 |
Average days in feed of a PMWS-R pig (days) | T3 | 173.81 | – | – | ((TPMWSD) + ((WHS − WPMWSD)/ADGSub) |
Breeding parameters | |||||
Litters per sow per year | LSY | 2.2 | – | – | Bench10 |
Pigs born alive per sow per litter | PBSL | 11.20 | – | – | Bench10 |
Mortality of pigs born alive (%) | X1 | 12.72 | – | – | Bench10 |
Pigs weaned er sow per year | WSY | 21.99 | – | – | LSY*PBSY*(1 − (X1/100)) |
Sow year replacement rate (%) | SRR | 49.25 | – | – | Bench10 |
Average number of parities | AP | 4.56 | – | – | (100/SRR)*LSY |
Cost of replacing a gilt (£) | CG | 157.62 | – | – | Bench09 |
Feed parameters | |||||
Sow feed consumption per year (kg) | FQS | 1232 | – | – | Bench10 |
Sow feed price/tonne (£) | FPS | 162.87 | – | – | Bench10 |
Grower feed price/tonne (£) | FPG | 202.55 | – | – | Bench10 |
Feed conversion of a H-S pig | FCRHS | 2.39 | – | – | Bench10 |
Feed consumed per H-S pig (kg) | FQHS | 225.85 | – | – | FCRHS*(Wt1 − Wt0) |
Feed consumed per day per H-S pig (kg) | DFQHS | 1.61 | – | – | FQHS/T1 |
Appetite loss of a PMWS-D and PMWS-R pigs during the clinical stage (%) | ALPMWS | 17 | Linked to ζPMWS | Linked to ζPMWS | Estimated from data of L-2001 study trough the correlation observed between feed intake and average daily gain at pen level. See Appendix 1. |
Reduction in feed consumption by subclinical pigs (%) | ALSub | 10 | Linked to ζSub | Linked to ζSub | Estimated from data of L-2001 study trough the correlation observed between feed intake and average daily gain at pen level. See Appendix 1. |
Feed consumed per PMWS-D pig (kg) | FQPMWSD | 79.37 | – | – | DFQHS*(1 − (ALPMWS/100))*TPMWSD |
Feed consumed per Sub-D pig (Kg) | FQSubD | 104.86 | – | – | DFQHS*TSubD |
Feed consumed per PMWS-R pig (kg) | FQPMWSS | 242.31 | – | – | FQPMWSD + (DFQHS*(T3 − TPMWSD) |
Feed consumed per Sub-S pig (kg) | FQSubS | 259.72 | – | – | DFQHS*T2 |
Other parameters | |||||
Veterinary multiplication factor | VMF | 2.74 | Beta pert | 1–8.06 | Average obtained from FO-2011 study. Minimum and maximum values obtained were used to define the stochastic range. |
Cost of disposing a dead carcass (£) | DC | 6 | – | – | As reported by a farmer in the FO-2011 study. |
Penalty on PMWS carcass (pp/kg) | PC | 8.75 | Beta pert | 0–35 | Average obtained from FO-2011 study. Minimum and maximum values obtained were used to define the stochastic range. |
Deadweight average pig price (£/kg) | DAPP | 1.39 | – | – | Bench10 |