Table 3.

Multimarker score and prediction of future events.

	Death	Heart failure	Major cardiovascular events
Score, per 1-unit increment	1.80 (1.64–1.98)	1.83 (1.55–2.16)	1.43 (1.28–1.61)
p-value	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
By quartile of score
1st quartile	Referent	Referent	Referent
2nd quartile	1.26 (0.82–1.92)	1.52 (0.57–4.06)	1.01 (0.67–1.53)
3rd quartile	1.55 (1.04–2.30)	2.19 (0.88–5.42)	1.10 (0.74–1.63)
4th quartile	3.20 (2.18–4.70)	6.25 (2.63–14.82)	1.87 (1.28–2.73)
P for trend	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
c-statistics
Best-fit clinical model	0.787	0.846	0.779
Best-fit clinical model + multimarker score	0.810	0.870	0.790
p-value	<0.001	0.002	0.007
IDI	0.05 (0.04–0.07)	0.04 (0.02–0.06)	0.02 (0.01–0.03)
p-value	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
NRI(>0)*, vs. best-fit clinical model	0.42 (0.31–0.54)	0.39 (0.21–0.57)	0.21 (0.08–0.34)
p-value	<0.001	<0.001	0.001

Values for continuous score and quartile are hazards ratios, with 95% CI, from multivariable models adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension therapy, diabetes, cigarette smoking, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, atrial fibrillation (heart failure and death analyses only), major cardiovascular disease (heart failure and death analyses), ECG left ventricular hypertrophy (heart failure and death analyses), and heart murmur (heart failure analysis only). SD: standard deviation; IDI: integrated discrimination improvement; NRI: net reclassification improvement; CVD: cardiovascular disease.

^*NRI(>0) denotes category-free NRI, using a threshold of 0% for the minimum change in predicted risk necessary to change classification. Values for NRI(>0.01) and NRI(>0.02) correspond to category-free NRI with thresholds of 1% and 2%, and are shown in the text.