Table 1.
Summary of studies examining prior mental ability and later cognitive change.
| Reference | Study | Baseline age and test | Follow-up (s) | Cognitive assessment | Analysis | Findings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owens (1959) | Iowa State Army Alpha Study (N = 127, all male) | Age 19, Army Alpha Form 6 | Age 50 | Army Alpha Form 6 | ANOVA and linear regression | No association between age 19 ability and change to age 50 |
| Richards et al. (2004) | National Survey of Health and Development (N = 2058) | Age 15, Alice Heim 4 | Ages 43 and 53 | Memory and visual search speed | Linear regression | Age 15 ability predicted decline in memory and search speed over 10 years |
| Bourne et al. (2007) | Aberdeen Birth Cohorts of 1921 (N = 91) and 1936 (N = 349) | Age 11, Moray House Test | For 1921-born, ages 77 and 80 For 1936-born, ages 64 and 66 |
Raven's Progressive Matrices | Linear regression | Age 11 ability accounted for ~ 2% of the variance in Raven's change over 2–3 years |
| Gow et al. (2011, 2008) | Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 (N = 550) | Age 11, Moray House Test | Ages 79, 83 and 87 | Moray House Test or composite from Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices, Verbal Fluency and Logical Memory | Linear regression and growth curve model | Age 11 ability accounted for ~ 1.4% of the variance in composite ability change over 4 years (regression); no association between age 11 ability and 4- or 8-year cognitive change (growth curve model) |
Note. Only studies with a measure of cognitive ability in childhood or young adulthood are included.