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. 2013 May 21;10(5):e1001451. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451

Figure 1. Overview of model-based approach.

Figure 1

This figure depicts the three components of our trend analysis: (1) development of a population-based intestinal-type NCGA microsimulation model, which explicitly incorporates birth cohort-specific risk factor trends, background mortality rates, and population size, and identifies natural history progression rates via model calibration to US epidemiologic data; (2) projection of intestinal-type NCGA outcomes between 2008 and 2040 for the base case (all risk factor trends) using a subset of 50 randomly selected good-fitting parameter sets (identified via model calibration); and (3) estimation of intestinal-type NCGA outcomes under alternative risk factor or tobacco control scenarios for insights on GC control.