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. 2013 May 21;10(5):e1001451. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451

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© 2013 Yeh et al

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.

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(A–C) Age-standardized intestinal-type NCGA incidence for select scenarios. Mean (solid line) and range (shaded area) among the 50 randomly selected good-fitting parameter sets are shown. (A) Cancer incidence for the base-case scenario (all risk factor trends) (black) and H. pylori and smoking only scenario (light blue). (B) Cancer incidence for the base-case scenario (black) and “no tobacco control” scenario (light blue). (C) Cancer incidence for the base-case scenario (black) and “complete tobacco control” scenario (light blue). Ranges were calculated across all 50 parameter sets and smoothed with a 3-y moving average.