Table 3. Modeled intestinal-type NCGA outcomes between 1978 and 2040: annual number of cancer cases and percent change in number of cases.
| Scenarios | Annual Number of Intestinal-Type NCGA Cases | Percent Change in Annual Number of Intestinal-Type NCGA Cases, Mean (Range)a | |||
| Historical | Projectedb | ||||
| 1978 | 2008 | 2040 | 1978–2008 | 2008–2040 | |
| Base case (all risk factors) | 6,180 | 4,160 | 3,760 | −32.7 (−23.7 to −40.8) | −9.8 (−30.9 to 12.4) |
| H. pylori and smoking only | 7,510 | 8,770 | 9,050 | 16.8 (4.9 to 30.0) | 3.3 (−12.7 to 22.2) |
| No tobacco control | 6,380 | 4,450 | 4,960 | −30.3 (−20.9 to −38.1) | 11.7 (−7.9 to 29.6) |
| Complete tobacco control | 5,940 | 3,910 | 3,050 | −34.2 (−25.1 to −41.8) | −22.0 (−58.3 to 8.6) |
a
Among the 50 randomly selected good-fitting natural history parameter sets identified via calibration.
b
Range for percent change included both positive and negative estimates, reflecting the uncertainty of the combined effects of continued risk factor trends and population growth on annual intestinal-type NCGA cases.