Table 5.
Results from the multinomial event history model of migration to local, internal, and international destinations (odds ratios and significance tests)
| Predictor | Local | Internal | International | Joint Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Factors | ||||
| Irrigation on farm | 1.86 | 1.31 | 0.69* | *** |
| Land quality index | 1.19*** | 1.00 | 1.15*** | *** |
| Topographic slope | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.93** | * |
| Mean annual rainfall | 1.01 | 0.99 | 0.84* | † |
| Mean rainfall seasonality | 1.03** | 1.00 | 1.00 | ** |
| Yearly rainfall deviation | 0.90*** | 1.08*** | 0.78* | *** |
| Demographic Characteristics | ||||
| Female | 3.36*** | 1.32† | 0.28*** | *** |
| Age 14–16 | 0.24*** | 0.46*** | 0.16*** | *** |
| Age 17–19 | 1.29 | 0.72† | 0.54† | * |
| Age 25–29 | 1.29 | 0.54† | 1.83* | * |
| Age 30–39 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.21* | ** |
| Child of head | 2.02 | 1.92** | 0.41† | * |
| Married or partnered | 6.29** | 1.50† | 1.61† | * |
| Complete primary education | 1.62* | 1.38* | 2.14* | * |
| Secondary education or more | 2.54** | 1.94** | 2.75* | *** |
| Female HH head | 1.22 | 0.63** | 0.65 | * |
| HH members aged < 15 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| HH members aged 15–39 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 1.01 | |
| HH members aged 40–59 | 0.55*** | 1.32* | 0.72† | *** |
| HH members aged 60+ | 0.62* | 0.79 | 0.53** | *** |
| Wealth and Infrastructure | ||||
| Owns home | 0.23*** | 1.18 | 6.31** | *** |
| Medium farm | 0.50* | 0.78 | 0.69 | |
| Large farm | 0.19*** | 0.68 | 0.36† | *** |
| Very large farm | 0.21*** | 0.42*** | 4.26* | *** |
| Distance to school | 0.77† | 1.12** | 1.08 | ** |
| Distance to paved road | 1.13** | 0.92*** | 1.06 | *** |
| Parish with canton capital | 1.35 | 1.25 | 0.45* | † |
| % Nonfarm employment | 0.97* | 0.99 | 0.97* | ** |
| % In poverty | 1.04† | 1.05** | 1.01 | ** |
| Migration Networks | ||||
| Personal migration experience | 0.45* | 2.13** | 0.84 | ** |
| HH local movers | 1.23* | 0.79** | 0.84† | *** |
| HH internal migrants | 0.79** | 1.19*** | 0.76* | *** |
| HH international migrants | 0.68 | 0.71** | 1.06 | *** |
| Parish internal migration propensity | 1.09† | 1.08** | 1.08* | *** |
| Parish international migration propensity | 0.82* | 0.95 | 1.15* | ** |
| Regional Indicators | ||||
| Santo Domingo | 2.21 | 1.59 | 2.11 | |
| Loja | 0.25* | 0.62† | 0.24** | *** |
| Joint Tests (chi-square statistics) | ||||
| Environmental factors | 27.5*** | 17.5** | 65.6*** | 279.4*** |
| Demographic characteristics | 305.8*** | 165.9*** | 181.8*** | 2,718.3*** |
| Wealth and infrastructure | 62.5*** | 70.2*** | 33.0*** | 60,667.2*** |
| Migration networks | 33.4*** | 80.1*** | 35.9*** | 297.3*** |
| Regional indicators | 9.2** | 6.2* | 27.4*** | 70.4*** |
| Year indicators | 72.4*** | 20.5** | 95.6*** | 328.7*** |
Notes: Reference categories are male, age 20–24, less than primary education, and small farm. The model also includes indicators for the year (not shown). Joint tests are Wald tests of the joint significance of selected groups of coefficients as indicated.
†
p < .10;
*
p < .05;
**
p < .01;
***
p < .001