Table 2.
Analysis Variables | Description | Calculation | Rangea |
---|---|---|---|
Maximum R0 | Reproduction number in immunologically naive population | c/γ0 | 4–20 (26) |
OPV transmissibility | Transmissibility relative to WPV (%) | ɛ/κ | 0%–20% (26) |
Susceptibility waning rate | Exponential waningb | 0.04, 0.07, and 0.1/yearc,d | |
φj | Effective vaccination rates in children (0–5 years of age) | 0–3/year (1, 23) |
Abbreviations: OPV, oral polio vaccine; WPV, wild poliovirus.
a Upper and lower bounds were selected as biologically plausible limits.
b See Web Appendix 4.
c Waning rate values are not well defined and were, therefore, chosen to examine the impact of waning on the dynamics for wide-ranging outcomes. Additional values are explored in Web Appendices 5.1 and 5.3.
d The susceptibility waning rates, 0.04, 0.07, and 0.1 per year, correspond to reaching 50% susceptibility after 17, 10, and 7 years, respectively.