Table 3.
Sensitivity analyses around indirect effectiveness of PCV13 and co-infection assumptions in normal and pandemic influenza seasons
| Normal season | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| |
Base-Case |
IPD indirect effects only |
No indirect effects |
Halve % with bacterial co-infection |
|
Cases avoided |
|
|
|
|
| IPD |
13,400 |
13,400 |
2,100 |
13,400 |
| Hospitalized pneumonia |
57,400 |
5,000 |
5,000 |
57,400 |
| Non-Hospitalized pneumonia |
341,200 |
62,300 |
62,400 |
341,200 |
|
Deaths averted |
2,900 |
1,200 |
40 |
2,900 |
|
Cost /(savings) |
$ (472) M |
$ 82 M |
$ 299 M |
($ 472 M) |
|
QALYs gained |
41,524 |
18,953 |
4,484 |
41,524 |
|
Cost per QALY gained |
dominant |
$4,300 |
$66,800 |
dominant |
|
Pandemic similar to 2009–2010 H1N1 | ||||
| |
Base-Case |
IPD indirect effects only |
No indirect effects |
Halve % with bacterial co-infection |
|
Cases avoided |
|
|
|
|
| IPD |
22,800 |
22,800 |
5,700 |
16,900 |
| Hospitalized pneumonia |
97,700 |
13,700 |
13,900 |
72,600 |
| Non-Hospitalized pneumonia |
773,800 |
170,800 |
171,900 |
504,000 |
|
Deaths averted |
3,700 |
1,600 |
110 |
3,200 |
|
Cost/(savings) |
($ 1.02 B) |
($ 130 M) |
$ 180 M |
($ 676 M) |
|
QALYs gained |
51,637 |
25,671 |
4,844 |
44,023 |
| Cost per QALY gained | dominant | dominant | $37,100 | dominant |
IPD, Invasive pneumococcal disease; M, Million; B, Billion; QALY, Quality-adjusted life-year.