Table 1. Probability parameters used in the economic model.
Base casea | Distribution | References | |||
Vaccine parameters | |||||
Vaccine efficacy (%) | |||||
Initial vaccine efficacy (14 months) | 89.96 | Triangular (64;89.96;98) | [29], [30] | ||
Initial vaccine efficacy (12 years) | 95.95 | Triangular (92;95.95;99) | [29], [30] | ||
Adverse events | |||||
Number of AE per 10,000 immunizations | 3.48 | Beta (4764;13691736) | [48] | ||
Number of AR per 10,000 immunizations | 0.02 | Beta (27;13696473) | [48] | ||
Vaccination coverage (%) | |||||
14 months | 95.9 | Fixed | [49] | ||
12 years | 94.0 | Fixed | [50] | ||
Disease parameters | |||||
ACWY incidence (per 100,000 persons) | 0.15 (age dependent) | Beta (25;16431651) | [15] | ||
Clinical features (%) | |||||
Meningococcal disease | 65.1 | Beta (443;238) | [51], [52] | ||
Meningococcal disease with septic shock | 34.9 | Dependent of MD | [51], [52] | ||
Case fatality (%) | |||||
Case fatality rate MD | 2.1 | Beta (8;372) | [51] | ||
Case fatality rate MDS | 13.0 | Beta (21;140) | [51] | ||
Sequelae (%) | |||||
Scars | 2.8 | Beta (16;546) | [4] | ||
Amputations | 0.7 | Beta (4;558) | [4] | ||
Neurological sequelae | 6.9 | Beta (127;1707) | [3], [4], [39] | ||
Demographic parameters | |||||
Birth cohort | 185,000 | Fixed | [18] | ||
Adolescent cohort (aged 12 years) | 200,000 | Fixed | [18] | ||
Probability of being a girl | 49.0% | Fixed | [18] | ||
Probability of being a boy | 51.0% | Fixed | [18] | ||
Probability of dying of other causes | Age dependent | Fixed | [15], [18] |
AE = adverse event, AR = Anaphylactic reactions, MD = meningococcal disease without septic shock, MDS = meningococcal disease with septic shock.
Values are presented as percentages or rates.