Table 1.
Predictors of down-referral among stable ART patients prior to matching at the Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa* (n=3,661)
| Predictor variable at down-referral eligibility | Down-referred (n=693) (n, %) |
Not Down-referred (n=2968) (n, %) |
Odds Ratio€ (95% CI) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | Male | 241 (34.6%) | 1028 (34.6%) | 1.0 |
| Female | 452 (65.4%) | 1940 (65.4%) | 0.99 (0.82-1.19) | |
| Age (years) | ≥50 | 72 (10.4%) | 312 (10.5%) | 1.0 |
| 40-49.9 | 192 (27.7%) | 817 (27.5%) | 1.07 (0.79-1.45) | |
| 30-39.9 | 343 (49.5%) | 1466 (49.4%) | 1.06 (0.80-1.42) | |
| 25-29.9 | 66 (9.5%) | 304 (10.2%) | 1.02 (0.69-1.50) | |
| 18-24.9 | 20 (2.9%) | 69 (2.4%) | 1.35 (0.75-2.42) | |
| CD4 category | 200-299 cells/mm3 | 128 (18.4%) | 862 (29.0%) | 1.0 |
| 300-399 cells/mm3 | 206 (29.7%) | 859 (28.9%) | 1.49 (1.17-1.90) | |
| 400-499cells/mm3 | 151 (21.9%) | 546 (18.5%) | 1.72 (1.32-2.25) | |
| ≥500 cells/mm3 | 208 (30.0%) | 701 (23.6%) | 1.75 (1.35-2.26) | |
| Body Mass Index | <17.5 | 9 (1.3%) | 62 (2.1%) | 1.0 |
| ≥17.5 | 684 (98.7%) | 2906 (97.9%) | 1.66 (0.81-3.39) | |
| Haemoglobin | <10.0 | 11 (1.6%) | 95 (3.2%) | 1.0 |
| ≥10.0 | 682 (98.4%) | 2873 (96.8%) | 2.02 (1.07-3.83) | |
| Time on ART (months) | 10-17.9 | 148 (21.5%) | 1025 (34.5%) | 1.0 |
| 18-23.9 | 126 (18.2%) | 482 (16.2%) | 1.72 (1.32-2.24) | |
| 24-29.9 | 109 (15.7%) | 399 (13.4%) | 1.79 (1.35-2.36) | |
| 30-35.9 | 102 (14.7%) | 360 (12.1%) | 1.85 (1.39-2.47) | |
| 36-41.9 | 98 (14.1%) | 433 (14.6%) | 1.43 (1.07-1.92) | |
| 42-47.9 | 100 (14.4%) | 242 (8.2%) | 2.62 (1.93-3.55) | |
| 48-53.9 | 10 (1.4%) | 27 (1.0%) | 2.87 (1.32-6.24) | |
| AZT- vs. d4T-based regimen | AZT | 209 (30.1%) | 997 (33.6%) | 1.0 |
| d4T | 484 (69.9%) | 1971 (66.4%) | 1.23 (1.02-1.49) | |
| EFV- vs. NVP-based regimen | EFV | 61 (8.8%) | 242 (8.4%) | 1.0 |
| NVP | 632 (91.2%) | 2630 (91.6%) | 1.05 (0.78-1.43) | |
|
| ||||
| Age (years) | mean (SD) | 36.3 (8.2) | 36.7 (8.3) | 36.3 (8.3) |
| CD4 category | mean (SD) | 440.5 (165.2) | 408.3 (169.4) | 414 (169.0) |
| Body Mass Index | mean (SD) | 24.9 (4.5) | 24.8 (4.6) | 24.8 (4.6) |
| Haemoglobin | mean (SD) | 14.1 (1.7) | 13.7 (1.8) | 13.8 (1.8) |
| Time on ART (months) | mean (SD) | 31.3 (11.4) | 27.8 (11.9) | 28.5 (11.9) |
€
Odds ratios calculated from a logistic regression model; predicted probabilities were used to create propensity scores to match patients for analyses of outcomes after down-referral.
*
d4T = stavudine, EFV = efavirenz, NVP = nevirapine, AZT = zidovudine