TABLE 2—

Probability of Prison for Drug-Involved Male Arrests: California, 1995–2005

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Variable	Pre-Prop36	Post-Prop36	Pre-Prop36	Post-Prop36	Pre-Prop36	Post-Prop36	Pre-Prop36	Post-Prop36
Blacks vs Whites
OR (95% CI)	2.125** (1.926, 2.344)	2.088** (1.856, 2.350)	1.763** (1.591, 1.954)	1.573** (1.385, 1.787)	0.967 (0.867, 1.078)	0.953 (0.834, 1.090)	1.060 (0.948, 1.185)	1.067 (0.928, 1.226)
Robust standard error	0.107	0.126	0.093	0.102	0.054	0.065	0.060	0.076
Demographics	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Arrest characteristics	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Criminal history	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
County-fixed effectsa	No	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Sample, no.	44 079	52 363	44 079	52 363	44 079	52 363	44 062	51 845
Clusters, no.	21 941	26 353	21 941	26 353	21 941	26 353	21 933	26 062
Test statistic for difference in coefficients: pre- vs post-Prop36b	0.222		1.375		0.156		−0.067
Hispanics vs Whites
OR (95% CI)	1.210** (1.112, 1.316)	0.921 (0.833, 1.018)	1.244** (1.139, 1.359)	1.034 (0.927, 1.153)	1.309** (1.196, 1.421)	1.063 (0.954, 1.180)	1.201*** (1.097, 1.314)	1.001 (0.896, 1.118)
Robust standard error	0.052	0.047	0.056	0.057	0.058	0.058	0.055	0.057
Demographics	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Arrest characteristics	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Criminal history	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
County-fixed effectsa	No	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Sample, no.	61 395	85 505	61 395	85 505	61 395	85 505	61 316	84 656
Cluster, no.	33 660	45 538	33 660	45 538	33 660	45 538	33 611	45 076
Test statistic for difference in coefficients: pre- vs post-Prop36b	4.134**		2.627**		3.024**		2.520**

Note. CI = confidence interval; OR = odds ratio.

^aModels with county-fixed effects have a slightly smaller sample size because counties with no variation dropped out of the regression.

^bZ-test statistic for comparison of coefficients.

*P < .05; **P < .01; ***P < .001.