Figure 3. Performance of the method with simulated data.

For three different preservation rate categories (0.1, 0.45, and 0.8) a total of 1000 simulation replicates were analyzed using the SNAPE v1.0 software. Method success was determined by the likelihood of the true TMRCA being greater than the 50% quantile of the discretized likelihood curve, which is shown by the purple bars. The percentage of replicates in which the method failed to meet this standard is shown in red. Replicates that failed due to an inability to calculate origination and extinction rates are shown in black. Simulation replicates in which the method returned a prior in which the likelihood of the true TMRCA was greater than the 75% quantile were considered accurate and these are shown in blue. Those replicates in which the prior showed the likelihood of the true TMRCA was greater than the 95% quantile were considered highly accurate, and the proportion of replicates meeting this standard are shown in green.