Table 2.
Logistic regression estimates of discrete-time hazard models of out-migration from Chitwan Valley
| Model 1 | Odds ratio | Z statistic |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict | ||
| Major gun battles | 1.09** | (2.59) |
| Community organizations | ||
| Market | 0.94 | (1.02) |
| Farmer's cooperative | 1.14 | (1.19) |
| Mill | 1.02 | (0.34) |
| Health centre | 1.06^ | (1.32) |
| Police post | 1.13 | (0.88) |
| Individual characteristics | ||
| Sex (female) | 0.72*** | (9.08) |
| Age | 0.97*** | (13.18) |
| Marital status | ||
| Never married | 1.02 | (0.34) |
| Married, living with spouse | Reference | |
| Married, not living with spouse | 1.23*** | (5.20) |
| Divorced, separated, or widowed | 1.63*** | (7.05) |
| Ethnicity | ||
| Brahmin/Chhetri | Reference | |
| Dalit | 1.12* | (1.74) |
| Hill Indigenous | 1.11* | (1.92) |
| Terai Indigenous | 0.87* | (2.15) |
| Newar | 0.87* | (2.01) |
| Migration experience | ||
| Ever migrated before 1997 | 1.44*** | (11.16) |
| Number of migrations since 1997 | 1.40*** | (46.29) |
| Months away on last migration | 1.03*** | (7.59) |
| Months back since last migration | 1.00^ | (1.57) |
| Number of children | 0.97*** | (3.21) |
| Educational attainment | 1.04*** | (8.71) |
| Wage or salary job | 1.16*** | (4.88) |
| Amount of land owned | 0.98^ | (1.60) |
| Distance to Narayanghat | 1.01* | (1.65) |
| Months of the year | ||
| January | 0.99 | (0.19) |
| February | 1.00 | (0.02) |
| March | 1.09 | (1.25) |
| April | 0.98 | (0.27) |
| May | 1.06 | (0.83) |
| June | Reference | |
| July | 0.75*** | (4.15) |
| August | 1.18** | (2.63) |
| September | 1.18** | (2.71) |
| October | 0.73*** | (4.53) |
| November | 0.99 | (0.10) |
| December | 0.99 | (0.14) |
| Years | ||
| 1997 | Reference | |
| 1998 | 0.96 | (0.72) |
| 1999 | 0.75*** | (4.20) |
| 2000 | 0.70*** | (4.44) |
| 2001 | 0.67*** | (4.11) |
| 2002 | 0.54*** | (5.29) |
| 2003 | 0.45*** | (6.19) |
| 2004 | 0.23*** | (9.49) |
| 2005-Jan. 2006 | 0.34*** | (6.43) |
| Residual | 0.9612 | |
| Neighbourhood level error variance | 0.1070 | |
| -2 res log likelihood | 1,852,885 | |
Notes:
1. No. of observations (person-months) = 258,333
2. Community organizations are coded as accessible if they were within the following walking distance from the community: markets and mills- 5 minutes; farmer's cooperatives, health centres, and police posts- 10 minutes.
Statistical significance:
^
p<. 10
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001 (one-tailed tests).