Table 4.
Subjective Beliefs about Expected Penalties Conditional on Conviction
| Variables | Fine
|
Fine (3rd)
|
Fine Amount
|
Fine Amount (3rd)
|
Jail
|
Jail (3rd)
|
Days in jail
|
Days in Jail (3rd)
|
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2)† | (3) | (4)† | (5) | (6)† | (7) | (8)† | (9) | (10)† | (11) | (12)† | (13) | (14)† | (15) | (16)† | |
| Black male | −0.110 (0.057) | −0.105 (0.057) | −0.109** (0.029) | −0.098** (0.030) | −705.2* (309.4) | −563.0 (298.5) | −394.1 (190.9) | −305.3 (186.3) | 0.101 (0.088) | 0.124 (0.085) | 0.099* (0.046) | 0.095* (0.045) | 65.32** (18.85) | 61.62** (18.78) | 101.0** (28.92) | 91.12** (29.52) |
| White female | −0.046* (0.020) | −0.050* (0.020) | −0.040* (0.011) | −0.036** (0.011) | −209.3 (109.6) | −172.4 (107.2) | −101.2 (71.40) | −76.32 (70.74) | −0.020 (0.031) | −0.024 (0.030) | −0.002 (0.017) | −0.005 (0.017) | 1.424 (6.817) | −1.802 (6.894) | 13.70 (10.65) | 10.06 (11.05) |
| Black female | −0.191** (0.048) | −0.169** (0.050) | −0.112** (0.020) | −0.096** (0.021) | −648.0* (264.2) | −413.8 (262.8) | −469.1 (131.1) | −338.0* (132.7) | 0.019 (0.074) | 0.044 (0.074) | −0.010 (0.031) | 0.002 (0.032) | 30.94 (16.75) | 17.46 (17.32) | 29.84 (19.14) | 13.51 (20.32) |
| Prior DWI arrest | 0.008 (0.061) | 0.002 (0.032) | 3.562 (317.1) | 261.4 (198.2) | 0.157 (0.091) | 0.068 (0.048) | −20.57 (19.27) | −31.56 (30.67) | ||||||||
| Binge drinker | 0.095** (0.029) | 0.019 (0.013) | 215.8 (154.6) | 92.77 (81.99) | 0.070 (0.043) | 0.017 (0.019) | 14.68 (9.857) | −6.847 (12.71) | ||||||||
| Heavy drinker | −0.105 (0.056) | −0.002 (0.025) | −455.9 (297.6) | −202.2 (158.4) | −0.020 (0.083) | −0.018 (0.038) | 0.918 (18.61) | −3.326 (25.21) | ||||||||
| Heavy binge drinker | 0.068* (0.030) | 0.026 (0.015) | 202.1 (162.3) | 117.3 (95.10) | 0.033 (0.046) | 0.031 (0.023) | −7.681 (10.39) | −17.44 (14.80) | ||||||||
| Educational attainment (yrs.) | 0.003 (0.005) | −0.002 (0.003) | −12.14 (28.16) | −23.57 (18.27) | −0.024** (0.008) | −0.010* (0.004) | −5.340** (1.786) | −2.161 (2.844) | ||||||||
| Married | −0.003 (0.022) | −0.015 (0.012) | −220.9 (117.9) | −139.8 (74.47) | −0.083* (0.033) | −0.046* (0.018) | −12.54 (7.608) | −16.62 (11.62) | ||||||||
| Age | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.000) | 2.700 (4.666) | −5.631 (2.894) | 0.002 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.001) | 0.336 (0.304) | 0.425 (0.448) | ||||||||
| Income | −0.027 (0.018) | 0.014 (0.009) | 206.8* (98.19) | 163.1** (60.04) | −0.011 (0.027) | −0.027 (0.014) | −2.387 (6.190) | −11.95 (9.274) | ||||||||
| Constant | 0.928** (0.013) | 0.778** (0.094) | 0.946** (0.008) | 0.915** (0.050) | 1,167** (70.04) | 792.3 (498.2) | 1,059** (51.52) | 1,357** (323.4) | 0.326** (0.020) | 0.524** (0.140) | 0.287** (0.012) | 0.440** (0.077) | 27.12** (4.391) | 97.61** (31.56) | 40.47** (7.664) | 76.29 (50.27) |
| N | 520 | 520 | 1,224 | 1,224 | 502 | 502 | 1,195 | 1,195 | 517 | 517 | 1,215 | 1,215 | 449 | 449 | 1,177 | 1,177 |
| R-squared | 0.039 | 0.101 | 0.036 | 0.051 | 0.024 | 0.162 | 0.013 | 0.119 | 0.004 | 0.138 | 0.004 | 0.111 | 0.033 | 0.125 | 0.012 | 0.036 |
Standard errors in parentheses.
**
p<0.01,
*
p<0.05,
†
covariates for income missing and city included but not shown.