Table 1.

Parameter estimates for arcs remaining after pruning for within farm clustering and over fitting. The median and 95% credibility interval of the parameter estimate of each arc is shown.

Arc		Log odds (or mean effect)
Child	Parent	Median	Credibility Interval
		50%	2.50%	97.50%
Rainfall (sum)	Date ^ 2	−129	−149	−109
Rainfall (sum)	Temperature (max)	−16	−17	−16
Wind speed (mean)	Temperature (max)	−0.64	−0.67	−0.62
Milk spots	Temperature (max)	−0.044	−0.087	−0.0044
Enzootic pneumonia	Temperature (max)	−0.031	−0.044	−0.019
Wind speed (mean)	Temperature (degree days)	−0.0057	−0.0063	−0.005
Papular dermatitis	Temperature (min)	0.052	0.04	0.064
Milk spots	Temperature (min)	0.072	0.025	0.12
Abscesses	Peritonitis	0.23	0.11	0.36
Peritonitis	Milk spots	0.27	0.15	0.4
Milk spots	Papular dermatitis	0.32	0.2	0.45
Hepatic scarring	Papular dermatitis	0.33	0.23	0.44
Pyaemia	Peritonitis	0.4	0.22	0.56
Peritonitis	Tail damage	0.46	0.28	0.63
Pyaemia	Pleurisy	0.55	0.31	0.8
Pyaemia	Hepatic scarring	0.68	0.52	0.84
Abscesses	Enzootic pneumonia	0.71	0.52	0.92
Pyaemia	Enzootic pneumonia	0.75	0.45	1.1
Peritonitis	Pleurisy	0.77	0.58	0.96
Wind speed (mean)	Temperature (min)	0.78	0.75	0.82
Hepatic scarring	Milk spots	0.79	0.68	0.89
Papular dermatitis	Tail damage	0.79	0.62	0.96
Abscesses	Pyaemia	0.82	0.66	0.97
Pleurisy	Enzootic pneumonia	0.91	0.76	1.1
Peritonitis	Pericarditis	1	0.88	1.2
Peritonitis	Hepatic scarring	1	0.91	1.2
Abscesses	Pleurisy	1.2	1	1.4
Pyaemia	Tail damage	1.6	1.5	1.8
Temperature (max)	Date 2	2.6	2.3	2.9
Rainfall (sum)	Wind speed (mean)	6.1	5.7	6.5
Temperature (degree days)	Temperature (min)	6.8	5.8	7.9
Temperature (degree days)	Temperature (max)	17	16	17
Rainfall (sum)	Temperature (min)	19	18	20