Table 3. Testing the likelihood of each Avahan condom use trend based on target fitting.

District	Condom use trend	Number of parameter sets sampled to find model fits (N)	Total number of model fits obtained (na) to the available IBBA HIV data for each district
			(i) 3 data points used for fitting: R1 & R2 FSW IBBA and R1 client IBBA data	(ii) 4 data points used for fitting: R1, R2 & R3b FSW IBBA and R1 client IBBA data	(iii) Ratio of fits ’estimated CCU trends’ vs. Control 1c1 or Control 2c2
Mysore	Control 1	200 000	121s1,**	2s1,**	65.5c1
	Control 2	200 000	215s,**	52s,**	2.5c2
	Estimated CCU trends^	200 000	131	131	–
Shimoga	Control 1	200 000	105s1,**	na	3.6c1
	Control 2	200 000	130s,**	na	2.9c2
	Estimated CCU trends^	200 000	374	na	–
Belgaum	Control 1	1 000 000	2188s1,**	2188s1,**	0.3c1
	Control 2	1 000 000	2910s,**	2575s,**	0.3c2
	Estimated CCU trends^	1 000 000	11056	74	–
Bellary	Control 1	100 000	56s1,**	0s1,**	∞c1
	Control 2	100 000	105s,**	7s,**	44c2
	Estimated CCU trends^	100 000	318	310	–
Bangalore Urban	Control 1	500 000	75s1,**	na	1.4c1
	Control 2	500 000	83s,*	na	1.3c2
	Estimated CCU trends^	500 000	108	na	–

CCU, consistent condom use; FSW, female sex worker; IBBA, Integrated Behavioural and Biological Assessment. ^**Indicate a P value less than 0.02 and ^*a P value = 0.07 for the χ² test comparing the frequency of model fits between the two following CCU trends hypothesis: ^s1Control 1 with the ’estimated CCU trends’ or ^sControl 2 with the ‘estimated CCU trends’ ^ ’estimated CCU trends’ as shown in Supplementary material figure S5, Control 1: Same CCU trends as the ’estimated CCU trends’ before the start of Avahan and constant thereafter; Control 2: Same CCU trends as the ’estimated CCU trends’ before the start of Avahan and then increases at preintervention rate until the last IBBA (R3 in Mysore, Bellary and Belgaum and R2 in Shimoga and Bangalore Urban) and constant thereafter. na: not available; ^a ‘n’ parameter sets out of the N parameters sets sampled agreed with the available prevalence data at the different rounds. ^bR3 IBBA data were only used at the fitting stage for Mysore, Bellary and Belgaum as it was not available at the time of the modelling analysis in Shimoga and Bangalore. ^c1Ratio of the number of adequate model fits using the estimated CCU trends compared to the number of adequate model fits when using control 1; ^c2 as ^c1 but using control 2.