Table 3.

Regression Results of Relative Claims Expenditure for Medicare Beneficiaries Switching In and Switching Out of Medicare Advantage, 1999–2008

	Switching-In				Switching-Out
	UnWeighted		Weighted		UnWeighted		Weighted
	Means	Model	Means	Model	Means	Model	Means	Model
Dependent variable	0.92 (2.31)		0.84 (0.76)		1.27 (2.07)		1.37 (0.99)
Base payment	703.67 (90.30)	−0.0004 (0.0007)	769.08 (122.63)	−0.001 (0.0007)	686.43 (97.95)	−0.0004 (0.0008)	768.83 (123.43)	0.00086* (0.00048)
HCC	0.59 (0.40)	−0.066 (0.233)	0.41 (0.42)	0.222 (0.189)	0.45 (0.42)	0.106 (0.254)	0.40 (0.42)	0.639*** (0.153)
Part D and lock-in	0.55 (0.50)	−0.176 (0.105)	0.36 (0.48)	0.0004 (0.0600)	0.41 (0.49)	−0.170 (0.118)	0.35 (0.48)	−.286*** (0.098)
Time trend	6.94 (2.77)	0.031 (0.030)	5.71 (3.06)	0.008 (0.014)	6.02 (2.98)	0.039 (0.027)	5.64 (3.04)	−0.024* (0.014)
Constant		1.131** (0.442)		1.504 (0.486)		1.272*** (0.455)		0.694** (0.326)
Fixed effects		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Adj. R2		0.419		0.286		0.053		0.236
N	13,831				13,245

Dependent variables: Switching-In: The average claims experience of those who join a Medicare Advantage plan in the 6 months prior to joining divided by the average experience over the same time period of those beneficiaries residing the same county who do not enroll. Switching-Out: The average claims experience of those who disenroll from a Medicare Advantage plan in the 6 months immediately following disenrollment divided by the average experience over the same time period of those beneficiaries residing in the same county who remained in traditional Medicare. Weighted regressions use the number of Medicare Advantage enrollees in the county-year as the weight. Standard deviations are in parentheses below mean values; standard errors are in parentheses below coefficient estimates.

*, **, *** indicate statistical significance at the 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence levels, respectively.