TABLE 2—
All-Cause Mortality Hazard Ratios and Cause-Specific Subdistribution Hazard Ratios at Ages 63 to 95 Years by Birth Cohort and Timing of Exposure to 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Cause of Death: National Health Interview Survey, 1913–1924 Cohorts
| Noncancer Causes |
|||||
| All Causes, HR (95% CI) | All, HR (95% CI) | CVD, HR (95% CI) | Other, HR (95% CI) | Cancer,a HR (95% CI) | |
| Birth cohort, exposure timing | |||||
| 1917q3, 1st y of life | 0.99 (0.92, 1.07) | 0.98 (0.90, 1.06) | 0.90 (0.81, 1.01) | 1.11 (0.98, 1.25) | 1.07 (0.88, 1.29) |
| 1917q4, 1st y of life | 1.06 (0.99, 1.15) | 1.04 (0.95, 1.13) | 1.00 (0.89, 1.12) | 1.07 (0.94, 1.21) | 1.07 (0.88, 1.31) |
| 1918q1, 1st y of life | 1.03 (0.96, 1.11) | 1.07 (0.99, 1.16) | 1.05 (0.94, 1.17) | 1.10 (0.98, 1.25) | 1.04 (0.86, 1.26) |
| 1918q2, at birth and 3rd trimester | 1.08* (1.00, 1.16) | 1.15*** (1.06, 1.25) | 1.02 (0.91, 1.14) | 1.28*** (1.14, 1.45) | 0.96 (0.79, 1.17) |
| 1918q3, 1st and 2nd trimester | 0.97 (0.90, 1.05) | 0.95 (0.87, 1.03) | 0.99 (0.89, 1.10) | 0.93 (0.81, 1.06) | 1.09 (0.91, 1.31) |
| 1918q4, at birth and 3rd trimester | 1.02 (0.95, 1.10) | 1.00 (0.92, 1.09) | 0.97 (0.87, 1.09) | 1.04 (0.91, 1.18) | 1.14 (0.95, 1.38) |
| 1919q1, at birth and 3rd trimester | 1.09* (1.01, 1.17) | 1.13** (1.05, 1.23) | 1.07 (0.96, 1.19) | 1.20** (1.07, 1.34) | 0.97 (0.81, 1.17) |
| 1919q2, 1st and 2nd trimester | 1.05 (0.97, 1.13) | 1.05 (0.97, 1.14) | 1.06 (0.95, 1.19) | 1.05 (0.93, 1.19) | 1.06 (0.89, 1.28) |
| 1919q3, 1st and 2nd trimester | 0.97 (0.90, 1.04) | 0.92* (0.84, 1.00) | 0.87* (0.78, 0.98) | 1.02 (0.90, 1.15) | 1.26** (1.07, 1.49) |
| 1919q4, 1st and 2nd trimester | 1.00 (0.93, 1.07) | 0.99 (0.92, 1.07) | 0.93 (0.84, 1.03) | 1.08 (0.96, 1.21) | 1.07 (0.91, 1.27) |
| 1920q1–1924q4, not exposed (Ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| No. | 81 571 | 81 571 | 81 571 | 81 571 | 81 571 |
| Deaths | 43 808 | 34 411 | 19 382 | 15 029 | 6734 |
| Log lik | −46 5151 | −369 047 | −211 364 | −164 239 | −74 553 |
Note. CI = confidence interval; CVD = cardiovascular disease; HR = hazard ratio. We estimated results for all-cause mortality with the Cox proportional hazards model, and results for cause-specific mortality with the Fine-Gray competing risks model. All models controlled for age and age squared at baseline, gender, and linear trend in birth year.
a
Excludes lung cancer.
*P < .05; **P < .01; ***P < .001.