TABLE 3—

Impact of Healthy Food Certification on Lunch Counts and Meal Program Participation Rates by School Level: Connecticut, 2004–2005 to 2009–2010 School Years

	Effect of HFC on Lunch Counts				Predicted Lunch Counts per Year, 2009–2010b		Predicted Meal Program Participation
Meal Program	IRR (95% CI)	Pa	Observed Counts, No.	Potential Lunches, No.	No HFC, No.	HFC, No.	No HFC, Ratec	HFC, Ratec
Paid lunch
Elementary school	0.985 (0.946, 1.025)	.461	22 883	48 546	25 673	25 288	0.529	0.521
Middle school	1.115 (1.049, 1.184)	< .001	37 114	91 249	39 530	44 061	0.433	0.483
High school	1.228 (1.157, 1.303)	< .001	40 081	148 548	37 107	45 569	0.250	0.307
Reduced-price lunch
Elementary school	0.975 (0.944, 1.007)	.112	3783	4850	3879	3781	0.800	0.780
Middle school	1.037 (0.987, 1.089)	.139	5423	7730	5551	5756	0.718	0.745
High school	1.120 (1.067, 1.175)	< .001	4974	9567	4768	5339	0.498	0.558
Free lunch
Elementary school	0.976 (0.957, 0.996)	.015	19 109	21 519	17 956	17 528	0.834	0.815
Middle school	1.007 (0.976, 1.037)	.669	19 713	23 930	18 800	18 922	0.786	0.791
High school	1.072 (1.040, 1.104)	< .001	20 888	33 010	19 794	21 215	0.600	0.643

Note. CI = confidence interval; HFC = Healthy Food Certification; IRR = incidence rate ratio.

Source. Authors’ calculations based on data from the Connecticut State Department of Education (2004–2005 to 2009–2010 school years),³⁰ the US Department of Agriculture,^1,33 and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics³⁴ from separate models for free, reduced-price, and paid lunch eligibility categories.

^aP value from the corresponding significance test from multilevel model (Table 2) predicting annual lunch counts.

^bMarginal lunch counts predicted.

^cParticipation rates are calculated as predicted lunch counts over potential annual lunches (number of a school’s enrolled students in a given eligibility category multiplied by the school’s number of school days per year).