Table 1: Observed changes in drought trends regionally.

How confidence is defined

Increasing levels of evidence combined with increasing degrees of agreement about the evidence are correlated with increasing levels of confidence.

Low confidence: Low-medium available evidence, low agreement about the evidence

Medium confidence: Medium-robust available evidence, medium agreement about the evidence

High confidence: Medium-robust available evidence, high agreement about the evidence

Region	Observed changes in global-scale trends in droughts since 1950 1	Projected changes in drought for the end of the 21st century 1
North America	Medium confidence that there has been an overall slight tendency toward less dryness, although analyses for some sub regions also indicate tendencies toward increasing dryness. Recent regional trends toward more severe drought conditions were identified over southern and western Canada, Alaska and Mexico, with subregional exceptions.	Low to medium confidence depending on the region. Medium confidence regarding increase in consecutive dry days and soil moisture anomaly in Texas and New Mexico; low confidence in other regions because of inconsistent change.
Europe	Medium confidence regarding increases in drynessbased on some indices in the southern part of the continent, but largeinconsistencies between indices in this region, and inconsistent or statistically insignificant trends in the rest of the continent.	Medium confidence: European area affected by stronger dryness (reduced soil moisture anomaly and consecutive dry days) with largest and most consistent changes in Mediterranean Europe.
South America	Low confidence because of spatially varying trends and inconsistencies between studies. For the Amazon, repeated intense droughts have been occurring in the last decades but no particular trend has been reported.	Low to medium confidence, depending on the region: inconsistent signal except for dryness increase (consecutive dry days and soil moisture anomaly) in north-eastern Brazil.
Asia	Low to medium confidence, depending on region. Low confidence in most regions due to spatially varying trends. Some areas have consistent increases but others display decreases in dryness indicated by different measures (soil moisture anomaly, Palmer Drought Severity Index, consecutive dry days). In East Asia, there is medium confidence in an overall tendency for increased dryness.	Low confidence because of inconsistent change in consecutive dry days and soil moisture anomaly between models in large part of domain.
Africa	Medium confidence in an overall increase in dryness, based on soil moisture anomaly and Palmer Drought Severity Index. For the Sahel, recent years have been characterized by greater interannual variability than the previous 40 years.	Low to medium confidence, depending on region. Low confidence in most regions, medium confidence of increase in dryness (consecutive dry days and soil moisture anomaly) in southern Africa except eastern part.
Australia/ New Zealand	Medium confidence: some regions with dryness decreases, others with dryness increases.	Low to medium confidence depending on region. Models agree on increase in consecutive dry days in South Australia, but inconsistent signal over most of South Australia in soil moisture anomaly. Inconsistent signal in consecutive dry days and soil moisture anomaly in North Australia. Strongest consecutive dry day increases in western half of Australia. Inconsistent change in area of drought depending on index used.
Summary	There is medium confidence that since the 1950s, some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts (e.g., southern Europe, west Africa) but also opposite trends exist in other regions (e.g., central North America, north western Australia). There is not enough evidence at present to suggest high confidence in observed trends in dryness due to lack of direct observations and some geographical inconsistencies in the trends.	There is medium confidence in a projected increase in duration and intensity of droughts in some regions of the world, including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa. Elsewhere there is overall low confidence because of insufficient agreement of projections of drought changes.