Table 2.
Multinomial logit event-history model predicting migration (treating international migration and internal migration as competing events), estimated using survey data collected in Fujian, China, 2002-2003
| International migration |
Internal migration |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent variables | e β | (t) | e β | (t) |
|
|
|
|
||
| Age | ||||
| 15-19 | 6.94 | (6.84)** | 7.39 | (2.23)* |
| 20-24 | 12.27 | (8.38)** | 9.37 | (2.68)** |
| 25-29 | 8.78 | (8.44)** | 3.58 | (1.44) |
| 30-34 | 7.81 | (6.85)** | 3.17 | (1.38) |
| 35-39 | 5.59 | (5.55)** | 1.08 | (0.08) |
| 40-44 | 4.53 | (4.79)** | 2.02 | (0.84) |
| 45+ (reference) | ---- | ---- | ||
| Male | 2.89 | (10.78)** | 1.68 | (2.59)** |
| Ever married | 1.01 | (0.07) | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Education | ||||
| Elementary school or less | 1.05 | (0.22) | 0.11 | (−6.75)** |
| Junior high school | 1.53 | (1.76) | 0.26 | (−4.25)** |
| Senior high school | 1.96 | (2.88)** | 0.32 | (−2.93)** |
| Vocational high school or college (reference) |
---- | ---- | ||
| Cadre | 0.41 | (−2.33)* | 0.30 | (−1.21) |
| Cadre in the family | 1.35 | (2.11)* | 0.36 | (−2.59)** |
| Prior internal migrant in the family |
1.01 | (0.08) | 1.24 | (0.85) |
| Prior international migrant in the family |
0.78 | (−1.76) | 0.47 | (−1.46) |
| Number of years elapsed since the earliest emigrant family member left |
1.02 | (1.44) | 0.90 | (−1.23) |
| Rural community | 0.85 | (−1.08) | 1.28 | (0.97) |
| Internal migration prevalence ratio at village level |
1.10 | (0.68) | 3.36 | (7.47)** |
| International migration prevalence ratio at village level |
1.54 | (4.84)** | 1.07 | (0.45) |
| Year | ||||
| Before 1985 (reference) | ---- | ---- | ||
| 1985 | 6.09 | (3.83)** | 1.61 | (1.36) |
| 1986 | 2.48 | (1.59) | 0.48 | (−1.06) |
| 1987 | 3.20 | (2.33)* | 0.95 | (−0.11) |
| 1988 | 5.03 | (4.35)** | 1.98 | (1.74) |
| 1989 | 10.14 | (6.97)** | 0.89 | (−0.25) |
| 1990 | 11.68 | (9.14)** | 2.13 | (2.25)* |
| 1991 | 7.22 | (4.45)** | 0.63 | (−0.86) |
| 1992 | 13.50 | (6.89)** | 0.63 | (−0.67) |
| 1993 | 15.52 | (7.31)** | 0.66 | (−0.89) |
| 1994 | 12.33 | (6.46)** | 1.50 | (1.24) |
| 1995 | 11.96 | (8.26)** | 1.51 | (1.04) |
| 1996 | 15.46 | (8.21)** | 0.23 | (−1.40) |
| 1997 | 14.09 | (8.09)** | 0.73 | (−0.57) |
| 1998 | 11.42 | (6.51)** | 0.73 | (−0.46) |
| 1999 | 13.67 | (6.06)** | 0.50 | (−0.86) |
| 2000 | 11.39 | (5.91)** | 1.61 | (1.10) |
| 2001 | 12.34 | (5.80)** | 1.30 | (0.34) |
| 2002 | 7.00 | (4.27)** | 1.13 | (0.16) |
| Intercept | 0.00008 | (−19.78)** | 0.00109 | (−7.95)** |
| Log pseudolikelihood | -2608.99 | |||
| Number of person-years | 25636 | |||
*
p < 0.05
**
p < 0.01
Note: Coefficients are presented in exponentiated (odds ratio) form. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
Source: China International Migration Project.