Table 1.
Population growth models for Java (1880–1930) with estimates of population loss from the influenza pandemic of 1918–19
| Model specification | ||
|---|---|---|
| Estimates | Unrestricted | Restricted |
| Intercept (γ00) | 14.1404*** | 14.1405*** |
| 0.0001 | 0.0001 | |
| Time trend (γ10) | 0.0176*** | 0.0175*** |
| 0.0001 | 0.0001 | |
| Flu dummy (γ20) | −0.1389*** | −0.1406*** |
| 0.0088 | 0.0063 | |
| Flu dummy * Time trend (γ30) | −0.0006 | – |
| 0.8885 | ||
| Number of observations | 120 | |
| Hausman test statistic | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Breusch Pagan test statistic | 327.52*** | 327.51*** |
| 0.0001 | 0.0001 | |
| Estimates of key demographic phenomena | ||
| Influenza population loss (millions) | 4.267 | 4.370 |
| Population change, 1918–19 (millions) | 3.780 | 3.835 |
| Annual population growth rate before pandemic (%) | 1.76 | 1.75 |
| Annual population growth rate after pandemic (%) | 1.70 | 1.75 |
p-values for null hypothesis of 0 coefficient in italics.
***
p <0.01.
Source: Five-yearly population counts 1880–1905 and the censuses of 1920 and 1930 per Widjojo (1970).