Table 2.

PD risk prediction regression estimates by model using the training set

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3a		Model 4b		Model 5a
Covariate	OR (95% CI)	P value	OR (95% CI)	P value	OR (95% CI)	P value	OR (95% CI)	P value	OR (95% CI)	P value
Age	1.01 0.99–1.02	0.182	1.01 0.98–1.00	0.26	1.01 0.99–1.02	0.13	1.01 0.99–1.02	0.12	1.01 0.99–1.02	0.12
Male sex	3.29 2.52–4.31	<0.001	3.39 2.58–4.45	<0.001	3.20 2.44–4.19	<0.001	3.21 2.43–4.24	<0.001	3.28 2.49–4.32	<0.001
Smoking	0.91 0.69–1.18	0.469	0.92 0. 70–1.21	0.54	0.90 0.69–1.18	0.003	0.91 0.69–1.20	0.50	0.92 0.69–1.22	0.52
Risk allele score	— —	— —	— —	— —	2.57 1.72–3.83	<0.001	2.62 2.07–3.30	<0.001	2.39 1.60–3.59	<0.001
Family history: unknown	— —	— —	1.35 0.88–2.09	0.16	— —	— —	— —	— —	1.28 0.83–1.97	0.27
Family history: first degree	— —	— —	3.59 1.94–6.64	<0.001	— —	— —	— —	— —	3.39 1.81–6.28	<0.001
Family history: second degree	— —	— —	3.25 1.67–6.32	0.001	— —	— —	— —	— —	3.19 1.60–6.25	0.001
Family history: third degree	— —	— —	2.07 0.68–6.32	0.20	— —	— —	— —	— —	1.88 0.61–5.83	0.28

CI, confidence interval; OR, odds ratio; PD, Parkinson disease; SNP, single-nucleotide polymorphism.

^aIncluded four SNPs: SNCA rs11931074, SNCA rs356220, MAPT rs1800547, and the LRRK2 G2019S mutation (rs34637584).

^bIncluded all 33 SNPs with known association with PD.