Table 3. Area under the receiver operating characteristics and predictabilities of single markers for progression of diabetes.a .
| Single marker | AUC (95% CI) | Optimal cutoff pointb | N of test positive (%) | Sensitivity (%)(95% CI) | Specificity (%)(95% CI) | Positive likelihood ratio |
| Men (N = 5,142) | ||||||
| Fasting plasma glucose | 0.874 (0.852–0.896) | ≥5.7 | 1340 (26) | 83.7 (78.6–88.0) | 77.0 (75.8–78.1) | 3.63 |
| Hemoglobin A1c | 0.793 (0.767–0.818) | ≥37 (5.5) | 2050 (40) | 80.9 (75.6–85.5) | 62.3 (60.9–63.7) | 2.15 |
| Triglycerides | 0.609 (0.574–0.643) | ≥1.55 | 1818 (35) | 52.1 (45.8–58.4) | 65.5 (64.2–66.9) | 1.51 |
| LDL cholesterol | 0.567 (0.532–0.603) | ≥3.22 | 2991 (58) | 69.3 (63.2–74.8) | 42.4 (41.0–43.8) | 1.20 |
| HDL cholesterol | 0.577 (0.543–0.611) | ≤1.35 | 2588 (50) | 64.6 (58.4–70.4) | 50.4 (49.0–51.8) | 1.30 |
| Asparate aminotransferase | 0.612 (0.576–0.649) | ≥22 | 2657 (52) | 68.5 (62.4–74.1) | 49.2 (47.8–50.6) | 1.35 |
| Alanine aminotransferase | 0.656 (0.621–0.691) | ≥26 | 1856 (36) | 58.4 (52.1–64.5) | 65.1 (63.7–66.4) | 1.67 |
| Gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase | 0.626 (0.593–0.660) | ≥23 | 2636 (51) | 68.5 (62.4–74.1) | 49.6 (48.2–51.1) | 1.36 |
| White blood cell count | 0.573 (0.537–0.609) | ≥5.8 | 2702 (53) | 65.0 (58.8–70.8) | 48.1 (46.7–49.5) | 1.25 |
| Uric acid | 0.535 (0.497–0.573) | ≥410.4 | 1404 (27) | 35.8 (29.9–42.0) | 73.1 (71.9–74.4) | 1.33 |
| Creatinine | 0.506 (0.470–0.541) | ≤88.4 | 4911 (96) | 92.6 (88.7–95.5) | 4.3 (3.8–4.9) | 0.97 |
| Age | 0.547 (0.516–0.578) | ≥42 | 3988 (78) | 89.5 (85.1–93.0) | 23.1 (21.9–24.3) | 1.16 |
| Body mass index | 0.640 (0.605–0.676) | ≥24.9 | 1505 (29) | 49.0 (42.8–55.3) | 71.8 (70.5–73.0) | 1.74 |
| Systolic blood pressure | 0.569 (0.532–0.606) | ≥126 | 2482 (48) | 59.1 (52.9–65.2) | 52.3 (50.9–53.7) | 1.24 |
| Diastolic blood pressure | 0.556 (0.519–0.593) | ≥80 | 2029 (39) | 49.0 (42.8–55.3) | 61.0 (59.7–62.4) | 1.26 |
| Women (N = 4,847) | ||||||
| Fasting plasma glucose | 0.924 (0.896–0.952) | ≥5.7 | 490 (10) | 80.7 (70.9–88.3) | 91.2 (90.4–92.0) | 9.16 |
| Hemoglobin A1c | 0.822 (0.777–0.867) | ≥40 (5.8) | 925 (19) | 67.0 (56.2–76.7) | 81.8 (80.7–82.9) | 3.68 |
| Triglycerides | 0.684 (0.628–0.739) | ≥1.22 | 1365 (28) | 58.0 (47.0–68.4) | 72.4 (71.1–73.7) | 2.10 |
| LDL cholesterol | 0.594 (0.534–0.654) | ≥3.67 | 1972 (41) | 54.5 (43.6–65.2) | 59.6 (58.2–61.0) | 1.35 |
| HDL cholesterol | 0.611 (0.555–0.666) | ≤1.81 | 3177 (66) | 81.8 (72.2–89.2) | 34.8 (33.4–36.1) | 1.25 |
| Asparate aminotransferase | 0.629 (0.569–0.690) | ≥19 | 2939 (61) | 78.4 (68.4–86.5) | 39.7 (38.3–41.1) | 1.30 |
| Alanine aminotransferase | 0.727 (0.675–0.779) | ≥17 | 2161 (45) | 80.7 (70.9–88.3) | 56.1 (54.7–57.5) | 1.84 |
| Gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase | 0.648 (0.598–0.698) | ≥12 | 2332 (48) | 71.6 (61.0–80.7) | 52.3 (50.9–53.7) | 1.50 |
| White blood cell count | 0.617 (0.560–0.674) | ≥5.3 | 2394 (49) | 71.6 (61.0–80.7) | 51.0 (49.6–52.4) | 1.46 |
| Uric acid | 0.622 (0.559–0.685) | ≥285.5 | 1857 (38) | 59.1 (48.1–69.5) | 62.1 (60.7–63.5) | 1.56 |
| Creatinine | 0.553 (0.496–0.610) | ≤44.2 | 1239 (26) | 35.2 (25.3–46.1) | 74.6 (73.4–75.8) | 1.39 |
| Age | 0.630 (0.581–0.679) | ≥51 | 3160 (65) | 86.4 (77.4–92.8) | 35.2 (33.8–36.6) | 1.33 |
| Body mass index | 0.740 (0.694–0.785) | ≥22.9 | 1828 (38) | 79.5 (69.6–87.4) | 63.1 (61.7–64.4) | 2.15 |
| Systolic blood pressure | 0.684 (0.635–0.733) | ≥124 | 2068 (43) | 71.6 (61.0–80.7) | 57.9 (56.5–59.3) | 1.70 |
| Diastolic blood pressure | 0.642 (0.593–0.691) | ≥71 | 2669 (55) | 79.5 (69.6–87.4) | 45.4 (44.0–46.8) | 1.46 |
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein.
a
Diabetes was defined as FPG ≥7.00 mmol/L or known diabetes at follow-up.
b
The units of each optimal cutoff point was shown in Table2, respectively.