Table 4.

Annual Transition Probabilities between Severity Levels and to Death for the Average NACC-UDS Patient^*

		t+1				t+1
		Mild	Moderate	Severe	Dead	Institutionalization
t	Mild (95%CI)	0.774 (0.75, 0.798)	0.158 (0.139, 0.176)	0.013 (0.009, 0.017)	0.055 (0.046, 0.064)	0.012 (−0.003, 0.028)
	Moderate (95%CI)	0.07 (0.051, 0.089)	0.501 (0.466, 0.536)	0.214 (0.186, 0.243)	0.215 (0.186, 0.244)	0.034 (0.000, 0.069)
	Severe (95%CI)	0.002 (−0.002, 0.006)	0.027 (0.013, 0.04)	0.492 (0.447, 0.536)	0.480 (0.435, 0.525)	0.066 (0.005, 0.128)
	Dead	0	0	0	1

^*Time since last visit=1, Age=77.31, White=0.826, Hispanic=0.074, Female=0.522, Years of education=14.24 and Married=0.660.