Table 2.

Estimates of overdiagnosis frequency and mean lead time among modeled screen-detected cases*

Age group, y	Overdiagnosis frequency, % (range)	Mean lead time, y (SD; lower bound, upper bound)
50–54	8 (7–29)	9.8 (2.5; 4.9, 14.7)
55–59	15 (10–33)	8.4 (2.1; 4.2, 12.6)
60–64	23 (14–42)	8.0 (2.0; 4.0, 12.0)
65–69	32 (20–51)	7.8 (2.0; 3.9, 11.7)
70–74	44 (26–60)	6.5 (1.6; 3.3, 9.8)
75–79	56 (34–68)	5.7 (1.4; 2.9, 8.6)

* The mean lead times pertain only to non-overdiagnosed cases, and lower and upper bounds are based on previous model estimates of mean lead time among non-overdiagnosed cases (7). Overdiagnosis ranges are over three previously published models of prostate cancer natural history and incidence in the United States (4).