Table 6.

Areas Under the Curve for Predicting Progression from Normal Glucose Tolerance to Impaired Glucose Tolerance^a

Variable	AUC	95% CI, lower limit	95% CI, upper limit	p value versus MQ
MQ	0.697	0.641	0.753	—
Fasting insulin	0.640	0.580	0.701	0.0022
Fasting glucose	0.605	0.543	0.667	0.0031
BMI	0.590	0.526	0.654	0.0009
HOMA-IR	0.648	0.587	0.709	0.007
OGIS	0.703	0.646	0.761	0.36

CI, confidence interval.

^aM^Q was calculated using data obtained at the initial OGTT time point. Areas under the curve were calculated as in Table 3 to compare stable NGT (n = 815) with NGT subjects at baseline that were IGT at the three-year follow-up (n = 84). One-sided t-tests were performed to test the hypothesis that the AUC is greater for M^Q. The baseline 2 h glucose has an AUC of 0.76. N = 887 for OGIS.