Table 4.
Application of the prediction models to hypothetical individuals with different risk profiles*
| Risk factors | Example 1† | Example 2 | Example 3 | Example 4 | Example 5 | Example 6 | Example 7 | Example 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaminase only | HBV+ | HBV+ and HCV+ | Lifestyle improved, HBV+, and HCV+ | Normal transaminase but HBV+ | Abnormal transaminase but HBV– | Lifestyle improved, abnormal transaminase but HBV– | Normal transaminase but HCV+ | |
| Age, y | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Sex | Male | Male | Male | Male | Male | Male | Male | Male |
| AST, IU/L | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 20 | 60 | 60 | 20 |
| ALT, IU/L | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 20 |
| Smoking, pack-years | — | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Regular drinking | — | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| Physically active | — | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
| Diabetes | — | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| AFP, ng/mL | — | 7 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 2 |
| HBV status | — | + | + | + | + | – | – | – |
| HCV status | — | — | + | + | – | – | – | + |
| Predicted probability in 5 y (95% CI), % | 7.3 (6.5 to 8.5) | 21.4 (17.5 to 23.8) | 77.0 (69.1 to 82.8) | 44.6 (37.7 to 50.8) | 0.1 (0.1 to 0.2) | 5.1 (4.1 to 6.1) | 2.1 (1.7 to 4.1) | 0.1 (0.1 to 0.1) |
| Predicted probability in 10 y (95% CI), % | 15.5 (13.6 to 17.3) | 38.2 (34.1 to 42.0) | 97.1 (94.7 to 98.4) | 75.8 (69.4 to 80.9) | 0.3 (0.2 to 0.3) | 11.8 (9.9 to 13.6) | 4.9 (2.5 to 5.7) | 0.2 (0.2 to 0.3) |
*The models were applied to calculate probability of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in eight hypothetical individuals with different risk profiles (ie, different AST, ALT levels, life style factors such as smoking, drinking, physical activity, and hepatitis B and C status) who represented the risk profiles in the general population. Life style improved means quit smoking, stop drinking, or becoming physically active. Predicted probability was calculated from absolute risk. AST or ALT levels greater than 25 IU/L were considered abnormal. AST = serum aspartate transaminase; ALT = serum alanine transaminase; AFP = alfa-fetoprotein; HBV = hepatitis B virus; HCV = hepatitis C virus; CI = confidence interval; — = not applicable.
†This individual only had AST and ALT measured. No data on health history variables or HBV or HCV status. The values of these variables were left blank.