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Probability of detecting a rabies outbreak. Solid lines indicate 0.99 (black) and 0.95 (grey) probabilities of detecting at least one case (P1). The black dot marks the median estimated probability of detection (D = 0.07) based on the median outbreak size (Od = 39 cases) estimated from 10,000 model simulations of 7 months of rabies spread with no control, with P1 = 0.95. The dashed box indicates the 95% percentile interval (D = 0.02–0.28, Od = 9–176 cases).
