Fig. 3.

Outbreak size and extent under different detection probabilities. (A) Median interval between the index case and detection of the outbreak (dotted line). Shaded areas represent 95% CIs for all panels. (B) Outbreak size when a response is implemented: the reference scenario of 6 months to mobilization (‘6 mth’), as well as an ‘immediate’ and a slower response (‘1 yr’). (C–E) The extent of outbreaks (% blocks infected) at the time of detection under different detection probabilities and (C) long-distance (human-mediated) dog movement: 0%, 2% (reference) and 5%; (D) island sizes (large 15,000 km², reference 5000 km², small 500 km²); and (E) shapes: interdigitated islands (+) and circular islands (reference, ·). Table 2 gives the model set up and parameters. These scenarios generate very different case distributions, potentially affecting the best vaccination strategy, which is considered in Fig. 4, Figs. S2 and S3.