Fig. 5.

Prospects for elimination in relation to guidelines for suspending control activities. (A) The probability of elimination in a 2-year monitoring period following proactive vaccination until no cases were detected for 2 or 6 months. In the ‘vaccinate’ scenario, vaccination was continued during the 2-year monitoring period. The grey shading indicates a probability of elimination exceeding 0.95. (B) The time between stopping vaccination because the outbreak is perceived to be under control (6 months without any detected cases; solid line in A) and the detection of any re-emergence. Only probabilities of detection ≤0.1 were explored, as elimination was extremely likely at higher probabilities (solid line in A). This plot is based on 100 runs where rabies re-emerged, with confidence contours indicating the proportion of runs where rabies re-emerged within a given time period and at a given probability of detection.