Table 2.

Predicted, Observed Detection Dates, and Difference in Adjusted Model

		Harrisburg		Philadelphia		Pittsburgh		Williamsport
Year	Location	First	Last	First	Last	First	Last	First	Last
2002	Predicted	29-Jun	26-Sep	27-Jun	7-Sep	30-Jul	24-Sep	30-Jun	24-Sep
	Observed	17-Jul	2-Oct	9-Jul	8-Oct	17-Aug	24-Sep	25-Jun	26-Sep
	Difference	18	6	12	35	18	0	−5	2
2003	Predicted	9-Jul	9-Sep	1-Jul	6-Sep	19-Aug	9-Sep	7-Jul	9-Sep
	Observed	11-Jul	18-Sep	26-Jun	17-Oct	5-Aug	16-Sep	15-Jul	15-Sep
	Difference	2	9	−5	41	14	7	−8	6
2004	Predicted	13-Jul	18-Sep	24-Jun	6-Sep	7-Jul	19-Sep	8-Aug	20-Sep
	Observed	23-Aug	8-Sep	9-Jul	21-Sep	13-Jul	13-Sep	10-Aug	10-Aug
	Difference	NA*	−10	15	15	6	−6	−2	NA*
2005	Predicted	15-Jun	28-Sep	14-Jun	25-Sep	8-Jul	21-Sep	14-Jun	21-Sep
	Observed	NA	NA	25-Jul	13-Sep	11-Jul	29-Sep	21-Jul	14-Sep
	Difference	NA	NA	41	−12	3	8	37	−7
2006	Predicted	19-Jun	5-Sep	23-Jun	30-Aug	9-Aug	31-Aug	11-Aug	5-Sep
	Observed	21-Jun	11-Oct	31-Aug	12-Sep	2-Aug	11-Oct	1-Aug	11-Sep
	Difference	2	36	NA*	13	7	41	10	6
2007	Predicted	18-Jul	10-Oct	16-Jul	6-Sep	9-Jul	30-Sep	12-Jun	9-Oct
	Observed	25-Jul	4-Oct	24-Jul	18-Oct	30-Aug	26-Sep	7-Aug	NA
	Difference	7	−6	8	42	51	−4	56	NA
2008	Predicted	25-Jul	15-Sep	13-Jun	10-Sep	29-Jul	24-Sep	28-Jul	17-Sep
	Observed	22-Jul	23-Sep	24-Jun	25-Sep	31-Jul	30-Sep	28-Jul	NA
	Difference	−3	8	11	15	2	6	0	NA

Note: Adjusted model has variable EIP₅₀ and longevity prior to day 210 (109 DD and 10 days) and thereafter (89 DD and 12 days). NA, NA^*, first, and last have the same meaning as in Table 1. The observed dates are the same as in Table 1.

EIP, extrinsic incubation period; DD, degree-days.