Table 3.
Transfer function models from the first period 1961 to 1982
| Dependent variable (labels and name) | Potential predictors in start model (name only) | Significant predictors in final model (name only) | Model type | Stationary R2 | Number of outliers | Q-stat (P value) | Z-stat (P value) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physicians (y1) |
x1, x2, x3, x4,x5, x6 |
x2 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.63 |
0 |
1.52 (0.96) |
0.81 (0.52) |
| Nurses (y2) |
y1, x1,x2, x3,x4, x5, x6 |
none |
ARIMA (0,2,0) |
0.76 |
1 |
4.67 (0.59) |
0.93 (0.35) |
| Inpatient care discharges (x3) |
y1, y2,x1, x2,x4, x5, x6 |
none |
ARIMA (0,1,0) |
0.96 |
3 |
8.30 (0.22) |
0.89 (0.40) |
| Outpatient care visits (x4) |
y1, y2,x1, x2,x3, x5, x6 |
y1 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.61 |
0 |
6.00 (0.42) |
0.70 (0.72) |
| Students enrolled in the first year of studies (x5) |
y1, y2,x1, x2,x3, x4, x5, x6 |
x6 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.98 |
4 |
0.60 (0.99) |
0.55 (0.92) |
| Graduated medical doctors (x6) | y1, y2, x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 | none | ARIMA (0,1,0) | 0.85 | 3 | 3.85 (0.70) | 0.84 (0.48) |
Legend: stationary R2 - measure of goodness of fit of model. Range is from negative infinity to 1; Q-stat - is Ljung-Box Q statistics that test the null hypotheses of no autocorrelation in residual series; Z-stat - is Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics that test the null hypotheses of normal distribution of residual series.