Table 4.
Transfer function models from the second period 1983 to 2008
| Dependent variable (labels and name) | Potential predictors in start model (name only) | Significant predictors in final model (name only) | Model type | Stationary R2 | Number of outliers | Q-stat ( P -value) | Z-stat ( P -value) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physicians (y1) |
x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 |
x1, x2 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.71 |
0 |
5.35 (0.50) |
0.63 (0.82) |
| Nurses (y2) |
y1, x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 |
y1 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.92 |
2 |
7.34 (0.29) |
0.53 (0.94) |
| Inpatient care discharges (x3) |
y1, y2, x1, x2, x4, x5, x6 |
x2 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.78 |
1 |
7.34 (0.29) |
0.51 (0.96) |
| Outpatient care visits (x4) |
y1, y2, x1, x2, x3, x5, x6 |
y1 |
TF (0,1,0) |
0.44 |
0 |
6.31 (0.39) |
0.59 (0.88) |
| Students enrolled in the first year of studies (x5) |
y1, y2, x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 |
none |
ARIMA (0,1,0) |
0.73 |
1 |
4.97 (0.55) |
0.67 (0.77) |
| Graduated medical doctors (x6) | y1, y2, x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 | none | ARIMA (0,1,0) | 0.23 | 1 | 4.73 (0.58) | 0.68 (0.74) |
Legend: stationary R2 - measure of goodness of fit of model. Range is from negative infinity to 1; Q-stat - is Ljung-Box Q(6) statistics that test the null hypotheses of no autocorrelation in residual series; Z-stat - is Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics that test the null hypotheses of normal distribution of residual series.