Table 5.
Item to outcome measures for HCR-20
| |
AUC |
95% confidence interval |
p | Odds ratio (OR) |
95% confidence interval for OR |
p | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | Lower | Upper | Lower | Upper | ||||
|
HCR-20 Historical items |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| H1 (Previous violence) |
0.500 |
0.314 |
0.686 |
1.000 |
0.261 |
- |
- |
0.001 |
| H2 (Young age at first violent incident) |
0.553 |
0.361 |
0.746 |
0.575 |
0.684 |
0.227 |
2.062 |
0.500 |
| H3 (Relationship instability) |
0.749 |
0.612 |
0.886 |
0.009 |
0.337 |
0.137 |
0.831 |
0.018 |
| H4 (Employment problems) |
0.745 |
0.598 |
0.892 |
0.010 |
0.294 |
0.115 |
0.747 |
0.010 |
| H5 (Substance use) |
0.555 |
0.372 |
0.739 |
0.561 |
0.794 |
0.386 |
1.652 |
0.544 |
| H6 (Major mental illness) |
0.500 |
0.314 |
0.686 |
1.000 |
0.261 |
|
|
0.001 |
| H7 (Psychopathy) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
| H8 (Early maladjustment) |
0.634 |
0.453 |
0.815 |
0.160 |
0.531 |
0.233 |
1.211 |
0.132 |
| H9 (Personality disorder) |
0.549 |
0.368 |
0.731 |
0.603 |
0.622 |
0.146 |
2.651 |
0.521 |
| H10 (Prior supervision failure) |
0.667 |
0.470 |
0.863 |
0.080 |
0.403 |
0.170 |
0.957 |
0.039 |
|
HCR-20 Clinical items |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| C1 (Lack of insight) |
0.779 |
0.625 |
0.934 |
0.003 |
0.147 |
0.042 |
0.513 |
0.003 |
| C2 (Negative attitudes) |
0.645 |
0.488 |
0.802 |
0.127 |
0.193 |
0.027 |
1.398 |
0.104 |
| C3 (Active symptoms of major mental illness) |
0.722 |
0.585 |
0.858 |
0.019 |
0.236 |
0.066 |
0.837 |
0.025 |
| C4 (Impulsivity) |
0.576 |
0.405 |
0.746 |
0.424 |
0.341 |
0.053 |
2.189 |
0.257 |
| C5 (Unresponsiveness to treatment) |
0.760 |
0.600 |
0.921 |
0.006 |
0.195 |
0.058 |
0.653 |
0.008 |
|
HCR-20 Risk items |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| R1 (Plans lack feasibility) |
0.719 |
0.580 |
0.857 |
0.021 |
0.139 |
0.020 |
0.940 |
0.043 |
| R2 (Exposure to destabilisers) |
0.548 |
0.373 |
0.723 |
0.611 |
0.602 |
0.186 |
1.942 |
0.395 |
| R3 (Lack of personal support) |
0.628 |
0.463 |
0.793 |
0.178 |
0.368 |
0.103 |
1.317 |
0.124 |
| R4 (Non-compliance with remediation attempts). |
0.485 |
0.303 |
0.666 |
0.873 |
0.920 |
0.316 |
2.683 |
0.879 |
| R5 (Stress). | 0.571 | 0.387 | 0.755 | 0.454 | 0.644 | 0.229 | 1.813 | 0.405 |
Note that lower scores are calculated as positive predictors of discharge yielding higher AUCs. AUC area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic). ‘p’ = Asymptotic probability for null hypothesis that AUC = 0.5. Note that H7 ‘psychopathy’ was omitted. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals and Wald p values. Note that OR confidence intervals could not be calculated for HCR-H1 or HCR-H6.