Figure 3.

Observed and estimated prostate cancer-specific survival among men undergoing radical prostate cancer based on simulation models. The figure plots the observed prostate cancer survival among men before and after 1992, assuming introduction of PSA screening in 1993 and that 10% of cases in 1996 and 40% of cases in 2005 are detected by screening. Cases detected by screening are assigned a time to disease-specific death that is the sum of a lead-time with the specified mean and a disease-specific survival time that is generated based on the survival among cases diagnosed from 1988 to 1992. The simulated models examine mean lead times of 5, 8, 10 and 15 years.