Table 13.
Prognostic index for severe malaria
|
N = 668 / n = 43 |
Co-efficient |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| MPI A | MPI B | ||
| GCS <5 |
4.318 |
4 |
4.5 |
| GCS 5-11 |
1.543 |
2 |
1.5 |
| Parasitaemia >315,000/μL |
1.238 |
1 |
1 |
| Plasma lactate > 5 mmol/L |
2.267 |
2 |
2.5 |
| Serum bilirubin > 58 μmol/L1 |
1.191 |
1 |
1 |
| Pigmented parasites >20% |
1.673 |
2 |
1.5 |
| Treatment with ACT |
−1.280 |
−1 |
−1.5 |
| AUROCC |
0.97 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
| Cut off 2 |
|
3 |
3 |
| Sensitivity |
|
100% |
100% |
| Specificity |
|
82% |
88% |
| Cut off 3 |
|
4 |
3.5 |
| Sensitivity |
|
93% |
95% |
| Specificity | 92% | 91% | |
MPI A = co-efficients rounded to the nearest integer with cut offs of 3.
MPI B = co-efficients rounded to the nearest 0.5 with cut offs of 3.
1 if not available; creatinine >132 μmol/L can be used instead.
and cut off of 3 would give sensitivity and specificity of 98%.
and 82% for MPI A and 96% and 88% for MPI B.
2 which gives the highest specificity for 100% sensitivity.
3 which gives the “optimal” sensitivity and specificity.