Table 7. Expected number of events prevented by each screening strategy compared with control, per 1000 individuals screened, after 30 years of follow-up.
| Events Averted (95% CI) | Number Needed to Screen | ||||
| Country | Health Check Strategy | MACE* | Microvascular Composite† | MACE | Microvascular Composite |
| Denmark | Base-case | 11.0 (9.6–12.4) | 8.8 (7.5–10.1) | 72 | 87 |
| Gated HbA1c test | 9.0 (7.7–10.2) | 6.8 (5.7–8.0) | 89 | 111 | |
| Without lifestyle | 8.9 (7.7–10.1) | 5.8 (4.7–6.9) | 91 | 134 | |
| Pre-screening: | |||||
| Age ≥ 50 years | 10.8 (8.9–12.6) | 9.0 (7.3–10.8) | 75 | 78 | |
| BMI ≥30 kg/m2 | 28.4 (21.8–35.0) | 27.3 (20.6–33.9) | 30 | 28 | |
| Above median risk | 15.4 (13.1–17.7) | 12.5 (10.3–14.7) | 48 | 55 | |
| Top quartile of risk | 21.0 (17.3–24.6) | 13.3 (10.1–16.5) | 32 | 55 | |
| France | Base-case | 6.1 (4.9–7.2) | 5.2 (4.2–6.2) | 132 | 143 |
| Gated HbA1c test | 5.6 (4.5–6.7) | 4.4 (3.5–5.3) | 140 | 175 | |
| Without lifestyle | 5.3 (4.3–6.3) | 3.4 (2.6–4.2) | 153 | 221 | |
| PS: Age ≥ 50 years | 6.2 (4.7–7.7) | 5.8 (4.5–7.2) | 126 | 118 | |
| PS: BMI ≥30 kg/m2 | 11.8 (8.0–15.6) | 11.1 (7.6–14.6) | 69 | 69 | |
| PS: Above median risk | 8.2 (6.3–10.0) | 7.4 (5.7–9.0) | 90 | 92 | |
| PS: Top quartile of risk | 9.4 (6.5–12.4) | 9.1 (6.5–11.8) | 81 | 72 | |
| Italy | Base-case | 14.8 (13.2–16.5) | 9.2 (7.9–10.5) | 51 | 76 |
| Gated HbA1c test | 14.2 (12.6–15.8) | 8.6 (7.3–9.8) | 54 | 82 | |
| Without lifestyle | 13.0 (11.5–14.5) | 7.4 (6.2–8.5) | 59 | 95 | |
| PS: Age ≥ 50 years | 14.3 (12.3–16.4) | 9.3 (7.6–11.0) | 49 | 67 | |
| PS: BMI ≥30 kg/m2 | 23.5 (19.1–27.9) | 16.0 (12.4–19.7) | 33 | 44 | |
| PS: Above median risk | 16.8 (14.3–19.3) | 11.4 (9.3–13.4) | 40 | 53 | |
| PS: Top quartile of risk | 17.3 (13.7–20.9) | 11.5 (8.6–14.4) | 35 | 46 | |
| Germany | Base-case | 17.8 (16.1–19.5) | 11.8 (10.3–13.2) | 44 | 60 |
| Gated HbA1c test | 17.2 (15.5–18.9) | 10.7 (9.3–12.1) | 46 | 66 | |
| Without lifestyle | 16.2 (14.5–17.8) | 9.0 (7.7–10.2) | 49 | 78 | |
| PS: Age ≥ 50 years | 17.4 (15.2–19.6) | 9.8 (8.1–11.5) | 41 | 68 | |
| PS: BMI ≥30 kg/m2 | 34.3 (29.2–39.3) | 26.5 (21.9–31.0) | 23 | 26 | |
| PS: Above median risk | 24.3 (21.5–27.1) | 14.7 (12.4–17.0) | 28 | 41 | |
| PS: Top quartile of risk | 26.9 (22.7–31.0) | 16.6 (13.1–20.2) | 24 | 31 | |
| Poland | Base-case | 12.6 (11.1–14.1) | 7.6 (6.4–8.8) | 62 | 98 |
| Gated HbA1c test | 12.4 (10.9–13.9) | 7.3 (6.1–8.5) | 62 | 101 | |
| Without lifestyle | 10.6 (9.2–11.9) | 5.8 (4.7–6.8) | 74 | 130 | |
| PS: Age ≥ 50 years | 12.6 (10.7–14.4) | 7.8 (6.3–9.3) | 58 | 86 | |
| PS: BMI ≥30 kg/m2 | 15.4 (11.9–18.8) | 12.5 (9.4–15.5) | 50 | 59 | |
| PS: Above median risk | 15.1 (12.8–17.4) | 11.0 (9.0–13.1) | 47 | 58 | |
| PS: Top quartile of risk | 13.4 (10.1–16.7) | 14.1 (10.8–17.3) | 52 | 42 | |
| UK | Base-case | 13.2 (11.7–14.7) | 9.6 (8.3–11.0) | 59 | 74 |
| Gated HbA1c test | 11.9 (10.5–13.3) | 7.5 (6.3–8.7) | 65 | 97 | |
| Without lifestyle | 11.3 (9.9–12.6) | 7.1 (5.9–8.3) | 68 | 99 | |
| PS: Age ≥ 50 years | 13.2 (11.3–15.1) | 9.7 (7.9–11.5) | 55 | 66 | |
| PS: BMI ≥30 kg/m2 | 24.7 (20.4–28.9) | 20.8 (16.6–25.0) | 34 | 35 | |
| PS: Above median risk | 17.8 (15.4–20.2) | 12.6 (10.4–14.9) | 40 | 49 | |
| PS: Top quartile of risk | 20.8 (17.1–24.5) | 15.0 (11.5–18.5) | 34 | 39 | |
The number needed to screen to prevent one event at 30 years is also listed. In all strategies, the number of events averted was significant, with p<0·0001. See Table 1 for definitions of the screening strategies.
*
MACE is a composite of the first occurrence of: MI, stroke, or CV death.
†
Microvascular composite outcome is the first occurrence of blindness, CKD or higher, ESRD, renal death, foot ulcer, or amputation.
PS = Pre-screening.