Table III.
Summary Statistics for NFL Football Games and Nielsen Television Ratings.
| Number of Games |
Fraction in Category or Subcategory |
|
|---|---|---|
| A. All NFL Football Games, 1995–2006 | ||
| Day of Week and Season/Postseason | ||
| Regular Season Games | 993 | .95 |
| Sunday Games | 866 | .87 |
| Monday Night Football | 68 | .07 |
| Thursday, Friday, or Saturday Games | 59 | .06 |
| Postseason Games (36 on Sunday, 17 on Saturday) | 53 | .05 |
| B. Sunday Regular Season NFL Games, 1995–2006 | ||
| Outcome | ||
| Loss | 414 | .48 |
| Win | 452 | .52 |
| Predicted and Actual Outcomes Based on Pre-Game Point Spread | ||
| Predicted Win: Point Spread ≤ 4 | 283 | .33 |
| Actual Loss (Upset Loss) | 79 | .28 |
| Predicted Close: −4 < Point Spread < 4 | 377 | .44 |
| Actual Loss (Close Loss) | 194 | .49 |
| Predicted Loss: Point Spread ≥ 4 | 206 | .24 |
| Actual Win (Upset Win) | 65 | .32 |
| Predicted and Actual Outcomes Based on Halftime Point Spread | ||
| Predicted Win: Halftime Point Spread ≤ 4 | 338 | .39 |
| Actual Loss (Halftime Upset Loss) | 61 | .18 |
| Predicted Close: −4 < Halftime Point Spread < 4 | 240 | .28 |
| Actual Loss (Halftime Close Loss) | 126 | .53 |
| Predicted Loss: Halftime Point Spread ≥ 4 | 288 | .33 |
| Actual Win (Halftime Upset Win) | 61 | .21 |
| No Sunday Game | ||
| Played on Another Day of the Week | 127 | .67 |
| “Bye” Week | 62 | .33 |
| By Time of Day | ||
| 1 PM ET Start Time | 587 | .68 |
| 4 PM ET Start Time | 224 | .26 |
| 8 PM ET Start Time | 55 | .06 |
| Salient Games | ||
| (a) Still in Playoff Contention | 589 | .68 |
| (b) Against a Traditional Rival | 201 | .23 |
| (c) Sacks≥4, Turnovers≥4, or Penalties>80 yds | 341 | .39 |
| (d) Highly Salient: (a) and [(b) or (c)] | 321 | .37 |
| C. Nielsen Media Research Local Television Ratings, 1997–2006 | ||
| Percent of Local TV Households Watching Game | Average (%) | Max (%) |
| Local Team Playing | 24.3 | 47.9 |
| 1 PM Game | ||
| Local Team Playing | 23.1 | 47.2 |
| Local Team not Playing that Sunday | 8.1 | 17.7 |
| 4 PM Game | ||
| Local Team Playing | 29.4 | 47.9 |
| Local Team not Playing that Sunday | 12.3 | 22.2 |
| 8 PM Game (ESPN/TNT games only) | ||
| Local Team Playing | 10.1 | 19.0 |
| Local Team not Playing that Sunday | 8.3 | 21.4 |
Notes: Sample covers the teams and years listed in Table 2. Starting times of games are approximate. See notes to Table 6 for definitions of salient games. Nielsen ratings begin in 1997 for Carolina, Denver, Detroit, and New England; 1998 for Tennessee; and 2000 for Kansas. Ratings for the 8 PM games do not include the 2006 season, as the broadcasts switched from cable/satellite (ESPN/TNT) to an over the air network (NBC) in 2006. Average ratings for 8 PM games in 2006 are 33.9% and 9.1% when the local team is playing and not playing, respectively