Table VII.
Updating Based on the Halftime Score Differential.
| Poisson Regression ate Partner Violence, Male on Female, at Home |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| Loss × Predicted Win (Upset Loss) | .116 (.033) | .105 (.028) | .142 (.033) |
| Loss × Predicted Close (Close Loss) | .046 (.024) | .035 (.020) | .059 (.026) |
| Win × Predicted Loss (Upset Win) | .006 (.029) | .007 (.025) | −.015 (.030) |
| Loss × Halftime Predicted Win (Halftime Upset Loss) | −.010 (.031) | −.030 (.035) | |
| Loss × Halftime Predicted Close (Halftime Close Loss) | −.036 (.021) | −.047 (.026) | |
| Win × Halftime Predicted Loss (Halftime Upset Win) | .004 (.037) | .023 (.042) | |
| Predicted Win | −.018 (.026) | ||
| Predicted Close | −.014 (.028) | ||
| Predicted Loss | −.006 (.022) | ||
| Spread | .001 (.002) | .003 (.002) | |
| Halftime Spread | −.001 (.001) | ||
| Non-game Day | .016 (.019) | .015 (.020) | |
| Joint Significance of Halftime Variables | |||
| p-value | .36 | .50 | |
| Number of Agencies | 764 | 764 | 764 |
| Observations | 79,386 | 79,386 | 79,386 |
Notes: Standard errors in parentheses, clustered by team × season. Regressions include agency fixed effects, season dummies, week of season dummies, and the holiday and weather variables described in the note to Table 4.Estimated models are comparable to the baseline model in column 3 of Table 4. See notes to Table 4 for details. Predicted win, predicted close, and predicted loss are based on the pre-game point spread (negative spreads indicate the number of points a team is expected to win by). Predicted win indicates a point spread of −4 or less; predicted close indicates a point spread between −4 and +4 exclusive; predicted loss indicates a spread of +4 or more. Halftime predicted win, halftime predicted close, and halftime predicted loss are based on the halftime “point spread,” which is the observed point difference at halftime (where a negative halftime spread indicates the number of points a team is actually winning by at halftime). Predicted halftime win indicates a halftime spread of −4 or less; predicted halftime close indicates a halftime spread between −4 and +4 exclusive; predicted halftime loss indicates a halftime spread of +4 or more. For an analysis of the relative predictive power of these measures, see the online Appendix Table 1.