Table 3.
Positive predictive values of the most parsimonious equations given by number and percent of patients with IFG or diabetes in each decile of predicted risk.
| Midwestern HMO Validation population | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decile | Equation A | Equation B | Equation C | Equation D | ||||
| IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | |
| Total | 558 / 9,263 | 6% | 558 / 9,263 | 6% | 540 / 9,032 | 6% | 514 / 8,682 | 6% |
| 1 | 20 / 877 | 2% | 23 / 838 | 3% | 18 / 903 | 2% | 6 / 868 | 1% |
| 2 | 21 / 922 | 2% | 20/ 1011 | 2% | 19 / 903 | 2% | 17 / 868 | 2% |
| 3 | 31 / 947 | 3% | 27 / 895 | 3% | 22 / 903 | 2% | 23 / 868 | 3% |
| 4 | 35 / 934 | 4% | 35 / 954 | 4% | 27 / 904 | 3% | 28 / 869 | 3% |
| 5 | 46 / 948 | 5% | 44 / 933 | 5% | 37 / 903 | 4% | 33 / 868 | 4% |
| 6 | 46 / 903 | 5% | 46 / 927 | 5% | 53 / 903 | 6% | 45 / 868 | 5% |
| 7 | 81 / 923 | 9% | 69 / 926 | 7% | 51 / 904 | 6% | 50 / 869 | 6% |
| 8 | 58 / 943 | 6% | 63 / 925 | 7% | 77 / 903 | 9% | 62 / 868 | 7% |
| 9 | 87 / 902 | 10% | 92 / 914 | 10% | 84 / 903 | 9% | 108 / 868 | 12% |
| 10 | 133 / 964 | 14% | 139 / 940 | 15% | 152 / 903 | 17% | 142 / 868 | 16% |
| West Coast integrated delivery system total population using Midwestern HMO estimates | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decile | Equation A | Equation B | Equation C | Equation D | ||||
| IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | |
| Total | 48,668 / 368,025 | 13% | 48,668 / 368,025 | 13% | 42,699 / 321,113 | 13% | 39,471 / 296,693 | 13% |
| 1 | 1,515 / 35,302 | 4% | 1,722 / 36,797 | 5% | 950 / 32,110 | 3% | 894 / 29,669 | 3% |
| 2 | 2,091 / 35,539 | 6% | 2,222 / 36,595 | 6% | 1,615 / 32,108 | 5% | 1,455 / 29,669 | 5% |
| 3 | 2,916 / 36,870 | 8% | 2,891 / 37,008 | 8% | 2,338 / 32,111 | 7% | 2,033 / 29,670 | 7% |
| 4 | 3,401 / 36,398 | 9% | 3,571 / 36,750 | 10% | 2,972 / 32,116 | 9% | 2,766 / 29,668 | 9% |
| 5 | 4,561 / 39,609 | 12% | 4,305 / 36,834 | 12% | 3,649 / 32,104 | 11% | 3,296 / 29,670 | 11% |
| 6 | 4,955 / 36,552 | 14% | 4,793 / 35,634 | 13% | 4,360 / 32,117 | 14% | 3,829 / 29,670 | 13% |
| 7 | 5,579 / 36,915 | 15% | 5,619 / 37,973 | 15% | 5,022 / 32,108 | 16% | 4,589 / 29,669 | 16% |
| 8 | 6,227 / 37,016 | 17% | 6,219 / 36,510 | 17% | 5,897 / 32,112 | 18% | 5,447 / 29,670 | 18% |
| 9 | 7,794 / 36,581 | 21% | 7,698 / 36,820 | 21% | 6,877 / 32,116 | 21% | 6,561 / 29,669 | 22% |
| 10 | 9,629 / 37,243 | 26% | 9,628 / 37,104 | 26% | 9,019 / 32,111 | 28% | 8,611 / 29,669 | 29% |
| West Coast integrated delivery system Validation population | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decile | Equation A | Equation B | Equation C | Equation D | ||||
| IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | |
| Total | 24,317 / 183,828 | 13% | 24,317 / 183,828 | 13% | 20,166 / 149,244 | 14% | 18,635 / 137,786 | 14% |
| 1 | 794 / 18,254 | 4% | 641 / 17,954 | 4% | 406 / 14,923 | 3% | 308 / 13,778 | 2% |
| 2 | 1,065 / 18,193 | 6% | 929 / 18,811 | 5% | 686 / 14,925 | 5% | 555 / 13,778 | 4% |
| 3 | 1,434 / 18,570 | 8% | 1,353 / 18,146 | 7% | 944 / 14,920 | 6% | 893 / 13,780 | 6% |
| 4 | 1,621 / 17,107 | 9% | 1,694 / 18,533 | 9% | 1,272 / 14,929 | 9% | 1,098 / 13,778 | 8% |
| 5 | 2,126 / 19,013 | 11% | 2,034 / 18,450 | 11% | 1,664 / 14,922 | 11% | 1,500 / 13,779 | 11% |
| 6 | 2,409 / 17,810 | 14% | 2,403 / 18,348 | 13% | 1,980 / 14,927 | 13% | 1,857 / 13,779 | 13% |
| 7 | 2,890 / 19,339 | 15% | 2,807 / 18,437 | 15% | 2,347 / 14,925 | 16% | 2,161 / 13,778 | 16% |
| 8 | 3,033 / 18,316 | 17% | 3,360 / 18,252 | 18% | 2,974 / 14,924 | 20% | 2,705 / 13,779 | 20% |
| 9 | 4,064 / 18,576 | 22% | 4,061 / 18,488 | 22% | 3,451 / 14,925 | 23% | 3,203 / 13,779 | 23% |
| 10 | 4,881 / 18,650 | 26% | 5,035 / 18,409 | 27% | 4,442 / 14,924 | 30% | 4,355 / 13,778 | 32% |
| Midwestern HMO total population using West coast integrated delivery system estimates | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decile | Equation A | Equation B | Equation C | Equation D | ||||
| IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | IFG or DM / total | Percent with IFG/DM | |
| Total | 1,138 / 18,527 | 6% | 1,138 / 18,527 | 6% | 804 / 13,077 | 6% | 761 / 12,456 | 6% |
| 1 | 37 / 1,690 | 2% | 39 / 1,845 | 2% | 27 / 1,305 | 2% | 19 / 1,245 | 2% |
| 2 | 49 / 1,997 | 2% | 44 / 1,814 | 2% | 25 / 1,309 | 2% | 19 / 1,246 | 2% |
| 3 | 65 / 1,845 | 4% | 50 / 1,876 | 3% | 30 / 1,309 | 2% | 22 / 1,246 | 2% |
| 4 | 66 / 1,703 | 4% | 80 / 1,871 | 4% | 41 / 1,307 | 3% | 36 / 1,245 | 3% |
| 5 | 85 / 1,883 | 5% | 99 / 1,851 | 5% | 59 / 1,308 | 5% | 49 / 1,245 | 4% |
| 6 | 96 / 1,848 | 5% | 99 / 1,859 | 5% | 71 / 1,308 | 5% | 61 / 1,247 | 5% |
| 7 | 147 / 1,976 | 7% | 128 / 1,851 | 7% | 101 / 1,308 | 8% | 97 / 1,245 | 8% |
| 8 | 145 / 1,870 | 8% | 152 / 1,854 | 8% | 106 / 1,308 | 8% | 102 / 1,246 | 8% |
| 9 | 177 / 1,813 | 10% | 182 / 1,849 | 10% | 134 / 1,308 | 10% | 140 / 1,246 | 11% |
| 10 | 271 / 1,902 | 14% | 265 / 1,857 | 14% | 210 / 1,307 | 16% | 216 / 1,245 | 17% |