. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Aug 1.

Published in final edited form as: J Infect. 2013 Apr 15;67(2):141–147. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2013.03.018

Table 3.

ARIMA models for weekly ILI incidence and climatic indicators, French Guiana, 2006–2010

Series	Term	Order^a	Parameter^b (SE)	T-ratio	p	R²	SBIC	RSME
ILI
	Constant		81.39 (19.9)	4.09	<0.0001
	AR	1	0.54 (0.07)	7.32	<0.0001	0.57	1303	43.5
	AR	2	0.25 (0.07)	3.36	<0.001
	Seasonal Autoregressive	52	0.28 (0.10)	2.78	<0.001
Rainfall
	Constant		56.1 (9.0)	6.2	<0.001
	AR	1	0.47 (0.07)	6.3	<0.001	0.43	1218	33.9
	AR	2	0.28 (0.07)	3.7	<0.001
	Seasonal Autoregressive	52	−0.21 (0.08)	−2.3	<0.005
Specific Humidity
	Constant		17.16 (0.21)	79.33	<0.0001
	AR	1	0.42 (0.07)	5.87	<0.0001	0.52	462	0.58
	AR	2	0.35 (0.07)	4.87	<0.0001
	Seasonal Autoregressive	52	0.12 (0.09)	1.23	0.2

Delay before effect is observed (weeks).

Size and direction of the effect.

AR: autoregressive term, representing disturbances. SBIC: Schwartz-bayesian index criterion; RSME: root mean square error; ILI : Influenza-like illness