Table 4. Cumulative effect of heat on mortality up to lag 3 and up to lag 30 and harvesting quantification.

		Cumulative effect
		up to lag 3**		up to lag 30
Region	Age class	% change	(90% CrI)	% change	(90% CrI)	% harvesting
Mediterranean *	15–64	0.92	(−0.93, 2.81)	0.20	(−1.58, 2.00)	78.2
	65–74	2.13	(−0.01, 4.31)	0.41	(−1.31, 2.16)	80.6
	75+	4.22	(1.80, 6.70)	1.83	(0.17, 3.52)	56.1
North-continental *	15−64	1.31	(−0.57, 3.23)	0.11	(−1.45, 1.64)	91.5
	65−74	1.65	(−0.16, 3.49)	0.10	(−1.46, 1.67)	93.9
	75+	2.07	(0.54, 3.63)	0.66	(−0.86, 2.16)	67.9

Note: % change = posterior mean of cumulative percent change in total mortality associated with a 1°C increase of maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold; 90% CrI = 90% credibility interval of cumulative percent change; % harvesting = percentage of harvesting quantified by 100×(1– k),where k is the ratio between lag 30 and lag 3 overall cumulative effect.

^*Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan and Ljubljana.

North-continental cities: Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Prague, Helsinki, Stockholm, London and Dublin.

^**Results from Baccini et al. (2008).