Table 3.

Analysis 1a models. (a) Fit information for compared models. (AICc – AIC corrected, K– degrees of freedom, Δ – change in AICc, W – relative weight of evidence for model among compared models, E – ratio of evidence for model in comparison to the most likely model). (b) Maximum likelihood model comparison. Each model is compared to the one immediately above it using Chi square test of log likelihoods.

(a)
Model	K	AICc	Δ	W	E
quadratic	45	76068.73	0.00	.98	1
cubic	56	76077.01	8.28	.02	62.68
slope	34	76078.34	9.61	.01	122.02
quartic	67	76096.2	27.47	0	920420
intercept	23	76123.49	54.76	0	7.78 * 1011
base	12	90628.42	14559.69	0	∞

(b)
Model	df	AIC	logLik	χ2	df	p
base	12	90628	−45302
intercept	23	76123	−38039	14527.01	11	2.2 * 10−	***
slope	34	76078	−38005	67.28	11	4.01 * 10−	***
quadratic	43	76067	−37991	28.92	11	6.69 * 10−4	***
cubic	56	76076	−37982	13.95	11	0.24
quartic	67	76095	−37981	3.08	11	0.99