Table 6.

Analysis 2b models. (a) Fit information for compared models. (AICc – AIC corrected, K – degrees of freedom, Δ – change in AICc, W – relative weight of evidence for model among compared models, E – ratio of evidence for model in comparison to the most likely model). (b) Maximum likelihood model comparison. Each model is compared to the one immediately above it using Chi square test of log likelihoods.

(a)
Model	K	AICc	Δ	W	E
cubic	44	45614.35	0.00	.55	1
quartic	52	45616.11	1.76	0.23	2.41
quadratic	36	45616.16	1.81	0.22	2.47
slope	28	45631.75	17.41	0	6021.88
intercept	20	45660.97	46.62	0	1.33 * 1010
Base	12	50797.68	5183.33	0	∞

(b)
Model	df	AIC	logLik	χ2	df	p
base	12	50798	−25387
intercept	20	45661	−22810	5152.8	8	2.2e−16	***
slope	28	45631	−22788	45.36	8	3.15 * 10−7	***
quadratic	36	45616	−22772	31.78	8	1.02 * 10−4	***
cubic	44	45614	−22763	18.04	8	0.02	*
quartic	52	45615	−22756	14.52	8	0.07	.