Table 2.
Cumulative probability to receive a renal graft at 1, 3, and 5 years from the time of registration on the waiting list, in two different time frames: 1/1/1995 to 12/31/2006 (A), and 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2012 (B).
| 1 |
3 |
5 |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organ | Number of registrations | Percent (probabilitya 100) transplanted in 1 year | 95% CI | Percent (probabilitya 100) transplanted in 1 year | 95% CI | Percent (probabilitya 100) transplanted in 1 year | 95% CI |
| (A) 1/1/1995–12/31/2006 | |||||||
| Heart | 41,101 | 53.98% | [53.5%, 54.5%] | 61.92% | [61.5%, 62.4%] | 63.19% | [62.7%, 63.6%] |
| Heart-lung | 1267 | 22.65% | [20.4%, 25.0%] | 32.68% | [30.1%, 35.3%] | 34.57% | [32.0%, 37.2%] |
| Intestine | 2252 | 48.49% | [46.4%, 50.5%] | 54.00% | [51.9%, 56.0%] | 54.66% | [52.6%, 56.7%] |
| Kidney | 287,194 | 14.21% | [14.1%, 14.3%] | 28.88% | [28.7%, 29.0%] | 36.00% | [35.8%, 36.2%] |
| Kidney-pancreas | 19,832 | 35.49% | [34.8%, 36.2%] | 52.80% | [52.1%, 53.5%] | 54.97% | [54.3%, 55.7%] |
| Liver | 117,489 | 39.93% | [39.7%, 40.2%] | 48.67% | [48.4%, 49.0%] | 50.49% | [50.2%, 50.8%] |
| Lung | 22,800 | 32.63% | [32.0%, 33.2%] | 50.28% | [49.6%, 50.9%] | 53.07% | [52.4%, 53.7%] |
| Pancreas | 9489 | 38.28% | [37.3%, 39.2%] | 49.00% | [48.0%, 50.0%] | 50.34% | [49.3%, 51.3%] |
| Pancreas islets | 920 | 19.78% | [17.3%, 22.4%] | 26.41% | [23.6%, 29.3%] | 27.28% | [24.5%, 30.2%] |
| Total | 502,344 | 25.80% | [25.7%, 25.9%] | 38.62% | [38.5%, 38.8%] | 43.47% | [43.3%, 43.6%] |
| 1 |
3 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organ | Number of registrations | Percent (probabilitya 100) transplanted in 1 year | 95% CI | Percent (probabilitya 100) transplanted in 1 year | 95% CI |
| (B) 1/1/2007–12/31/2012 | |||||
| Heart | 13,534 | 59.23% | [58.4%, 60.0%] | 67.34% | [66.5%, 68.1%] |
| Heart-lung | 224 | 46.43% | [39.9%, 52.7%] | 0 | [a, a] |
| Intestine | 1049 | 59.49% | [56.5%, 62.4%] | 65.51% | [62.5%, 68.3%] |
| Kidney | 138,803 | 9.65% | [9.49%, 9.80%] | 21.65% | [21.4%, 21.9%] |
| Kidney-pancreas | 6335 | 34.98% | [33.8%, 36.2%] | 50.32% | [49.1%, 51.6%] |
| Liver | 45,517 | 45.17% | [44.7%, 45.6%] | 51.84% | [51.4%, 52.3%] |
| Lung | 8710 | 63.88% | [62.9%, 64.9%] | 72.13% | [71.2%, 73.1%] |
| Pancreas | 3288 | 34.91% | [33.3%, 36.5%] | 44.02% | [42.3%, 45.7%] |
| Pancreas islets | 311 | 31.83% | [26.8%, 37.0%] | 44.29% | [38.6%, 49.9%] |
| Total | 217,771 | 23.75% | [23.6%, 23.9%] | 34.26% | [34.1%, 34.5%] |
Noteworthy is that percentages are trending toward lower figures as years go by owing to the increasing gap between demand and offer (based on open access, official data from Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data as of July 27, 2012).
aValue cannot be calculated owing to <10 at risk at time point.