Table 3. Descriptive characteristics of household outbreak data compared to 10?4 simulations from fitted Models 1–3.

	Data		Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
Descriptive Statistic	Value	Range	Value	5th–95th Quantile	Value	5th–95th Quantile	Value	5th–95th Quantile
Avg#secondary cases (in hh w/1+ cases)	1.3	(1.0, 4.0)	1.2	(1.0, 3.0)	1.3	(1.0, 3.0)	1.3	(1.0, 3.0)
Avg household outbreakduration (days)	3.1	(0.5, 10.0)	2.8	(0.5, 10.0)	3.4	(0.5, 11.0)	2.9	(0.5, 10.0)
Avg serial interval (days)	2.3	(0.5, 8.0)	2.6	(0.5, 8.0)	2.7	(0.6, 9.0)	2.3	(0.5, 9.5)
Probability nosecondary cases	0.62	–	0.70	–	0.63	–	0.64	–
Recrudescenceprobability	0.17	–	0.22	–	0.29	–	0.21	–